What's Happening

Election

Your Guide to Election Night

What's going on: The day we’ve all been waiting for is here. Election Day will likely be unpredictable, but here’s what to expect:

• When will we know who won?: That’s the million-dollar question. In 2020, it took about four days for the Associated Press (theSkimm’s source for election results) to call the race. With fewer people voting early in-person or by mail this time, states may count votes faster. However, in swing states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where mail ballots aren’t counted until Election Day, it could take days. If the race is tight (as predicted), that could further delay the final outcome — though some analysts say there’s the possibility one candidate could win by a wide margin.

• What to look out for: Six states will be the first to close their polls at 7 pm EST. This includes Georgia, where the secretary of state told CNN that 70% of votes will likely be tallied by 8 pm EST. North Carolina could also finalize its results tonight. Both are key states, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be indicative of a national trend. That’s partly because of red and blue “mirages” — when one candidate appears to lead early in the night before all votes are counted. In other states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada, it could take days to declare a winner. Other states to keep an eye on include Iowa, where VP Kamala Harris recently took the lead in a surprising poll, and New Hampshire and New Mexico, where former President Donald Trump could pull off an upset.

• What else is at stake: Control of Congress and abortion rights. Republicans are positioned to take the Senate. Control of the House remains a tossup, and one political analyst told The New York Times that we likely won’t know the outcome tonight. Voters in 10 states will also weigh in on adding abortion rights to their state constitutions.

What it means: For voters on both sides, the stakes feel unusually high, with many seeing the results as crucial to the future of American democracy. Since the 2020 election, a series of events have deepened political divides, including the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, two assassination attempts, and the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. As tens of millions of Americans cast their ballots today, many worry about the potential for post-election violence. Some political analysts warn that tensions could escalate once the results are in — fueled in part by Trump’s baseless efforts to cast doubt on the results ahead of Election Day. States like Nevada and Washington are beefing up security as a precaution.

Related: Take the Edge Off Tonight With an Election-Night Bingo Game (NYT Gift Link)

Politics

This Election Isn't Just About Women vs. Men

What's going on: While many pollsters and pundits suggest that gender could be the deciding factor in the 2024 election, other key demographics may also play a pivotal role in determining the outcome. Latino voters, particularly Puerto Ricans, could sway the results — especially after the racist comments made at former President Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally. Pennsylvania, where Trump and VP Kamala Harris are in a virtual tie, has the fourth-highest Puerto Rican population in the US. Meanwhile, some are wondering if more Arab American voters than usual will support Trump or sit out the election, as many have felt ignored by Democrats and upset with their handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Plus, there are more niche demographics to consider: so-called “latte dads” (who have daughters and are voting on reproductive rights), “shy Harris voters,” conflicted Nikki Haley voters, late deciders, and “hold-your-nose” voters. 

What it means: Some cohorts have the power to sway elections significantly. For instance, in 2016, there was a lot of buzz about how white women swung the race for Trump.That’s why voter turnout is so crucial, and why both candidates have spent the last several weeks reaching out to specific communities. Trump, for example, has tried to save face by holding rallies in majority Latino cities in Pennsylvania. Harris has also reached out to this bloc and made a concerted effort to attract Black male voters. Soon, each candidate will learn if their last-minute campaign efforts have paid off.

Related: The Major Takeaways From Early Voting (CNN)