Almost everyone has said it or heard it: Existing Home Sales are in the toilet because there's no inventory and there's no inventory because no one wants to give up their 3% mortgage when rates are 7%.   "There are simply not enough homes for sale," according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory." To be sure, more inventory would be a good thing in almost every regard.  A doubling of inventory would likely keep prices in check or push them slightly lower, but it might not conjure up as much buying demand as you might assume.  Two separate stats in today's Existing Home Sales data illustrate the point.  The first is for inventory in terms of UNITS. This chart makes it seem as if inventory is in line with all time lows and not building as quickly as it normally does at this time of year.  But the takeaway changes a bit when we look at inventory in terms of "months of supply." Since it's not incredibly easy to quickly glean the takeaway from the two charts above, here you go: in terms of units, inventory is nowhere near mid-2020 levels while "months of supply" is well above.  Let's zoom in: All that to say: inventory alone is only part of the problem.  There's also definitely a demand problem in the housing market, likely due to rates, program availability, and other lesser factors.  After all, sales aren't doing great since attempting to bounce at the beginning of the year.
MND logo
July 20, 2023
Download our Mobile App:
Download from Google Play
Download from Apple App Store
View the QR Code
Download our Mobile App:
Download from Google Play
Download from Apple App Store
Housing News
Almost everyone has said it or heard it: Existing Home Sales are in the toilet because there's no inventory and there's no inventory because no one wants to give up their 3% mortgage when rates are 7%.   "There are simply not enough homes ... (read more)
Mortgage Rate Watch
Some of today's news says mortgage rates are much lower than last week.  And here I am telling you they're higher. Who should you believe? Easy one!  Believe me.  What I just told you is accurate.  The other stuff is stale info.&n... (read more)
MBS Commentary
Watching the bond market in real time can be stressful if you work in a highly rate-sensitive industry.  There's a tendency to get caught up in the intraday movement on any given day as if it had a big impact on the bigger picture.  That sa... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
Ever see the movie “Cocoon”? Is there an X-rated version? Seven of the 10 fastest-growing metro areas over the past year are in Florida. The Census Bureau tells us there was population growth for about two-thirds of U.S. metro areas during this time,... (read more)
Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries