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| Tuesday, October 24, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| After a wild Week 7, the NFL is down to just two teams that only have one loss and those two teams are the Chiefs and Eagles, so I guess we should all just start mentally preparing now for a Super Bowl rematch. |
| The 49ers would have been a part of that one-loss club if they had won last night, but instead, they got KO'd by Kirk Cousins, who threw for 378 yards in a 22-17 win. We'll be handing out grades for that game in today's newsletter, plus we'll be taking a look at Prisco's Power Rankings, which has undergone some major changes this week. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. All right, let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's show: Early bets for Week 8 |
| With Week 7 officially in the books, we decided to get an early jump on Week 8 today by revealing some of our best bets for the upcoming week of NFL action. |
| During today's episode, Katie Mox and Will Brinson were joined by SportsLine gambling guru Emory Hunt. |
| The crew covered several of their favorite early bets for Week 8 and we're going to look at a couple of those below. |
| Brinson: Rams (+6.5) to cover against the Cowboys. Brinson has actually been impressed with the Rams this year and he thinks they'll be able to keep it reasonably close in Dallas. "I like the Rams catching the 6.5 here," Brinson said. "That's too many points for a Rams team that can score, that has Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp playing well, that should be able to move the ball against the Cowboys and the defense, with Aaron Donald, should be able to get after Dak Prescott."Hunt: Jaguars at Steelers OVER 42 points. Hunt thinks these two teams will combine for more points than most people are expecting, "I do like the over. Jacksonville, on paper, you're like, 'OK, this team can average 30 points,' so you trust that they can get it," Hunt said, before explaining why he thinks the Jags will be able to move the ball on the Steelers. "How can you challenge Pittsburgh? You spread them out, use pinpoint passing and pick your targets to widen out that pressure." |
| If you want to hear the rest of the props and early best bets for Week 8, you can do that by listening to the show here. You can also watch today's show on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. Monday night grades after Vikings' 22-17 win over 49ers |
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| The final game of Week 7 was a wild one with the Vikings shocking the 49ers. The Vikings jumped out to an early 7-0 lead and then never trailed after that. It was a huge game for Kirk Cousins, who might have finally gotten the Monday night monkey off his back. Going into this week, Cousins had a career record of 2-10 on Monday nights and he had a reputation for playing poorly, but that definitely wasn't the case against the 49ers. |
| Here are our grades from the game: |
| 49ERS GRADE: B- |
| Brock Purdy has been reliable all year and the 49ers defense has been reliable all year. But Monday night, they both let San Francisco down. The 49ers went into Week 7 with one of the best defenses in the NFL, but you wouldn't know that based on how they played against Minnesota. The 49ers defense got torched for 452 yards, and a big reason that happened is because it didn't get much pressure on Kirk Cousins. (He was sacked zero times on 45 pass attempts.) The defense also couldn't get off the field, as the Vikings converted 8 of 13 third downs. As for Purdy, after playing impressive football for three quarters, he melted down in the fourth quarter with two interceptions, marking the first time in his career he's thrown two picks in a game, let alone the same quarter. The 49ers have now lost two straight, and things aren't going to get any easier with the Bengals and Jaguars next up on their schedule. |
| 49ers note |
| Purdy bad. Since taking over the 49ers starting QB job lost December, Brock Purdy has been one of the most impressive quarterbacks in the NFL. However, it's starting to look like he might have one weakness: Playing from behind in the fourth quarter. The 49ers aren't usually trailing in the fourth quarter, but when they are, Purdy has been bad. Against the Vikings, Purdy was 5 of 11 for 58 yards with two interceptions. Overall, he's now 12 of 31 for 166 yards and three interceptions during his career when San Francisco is trailing in the fourth quarter. Including playoffs, the 49ers are now 0-29 when trailing by five or more points entering the fourth quarter under Kyle Shanahan, who was hired in 2017. They are the only NFL team without a single win in that situation over that span. |
| VIKINGS GRADE: A |
| Kirk Cousins threw an interception on his second pass of the game, but after that, the Vikings played nearly perfect football. Cousins carved up the 49ers defense with 378 passing yards. Most of Minnesota's offensive fireworks came from rookie Jordan Addison, who caught two TD passes, including an improbable 60-yarder just before halftime that looked like it had been intercepted (you can see that here ). Not to be outdone, the Vikings defense was equally impressive. It kept Brock Purdy on the run for all four quarters, and it also came up with two huge interceptions over the final six minutes of the game. At 3-4, there's no reason this reinvigorated Vikings team can't get back in the NFC North race. |
| Vikings note |
| Vikings surviving without Justin Jefferson. With no Justin Jefferson, the Vikings needed someone to step up and they got that from Jordan Addison. The rookie receiver caught seven passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns. With his performance, Addison became just the second Vikings rookie since 2000 to go over 100 receiving yards with two touchdowns in the same game (Jefferson was the other rookie to pull that off). The Vikings also got a huge performance from T.J. Hockenson, who served as a security blanket for Cousins. The tight end caught 11 passes for 86 yards. The receptions total was the second-highest number in his career. |
| If you want to check out more of our takeaways from the game, be sure to click here. |
| 3. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 8 |
| With the 49ers going down, Pete Prisco had to stay up extra late last night so that he could reshuffle his power rankings. The 49ers were one of THREE teams in Prisco's top five that lost in Week 7, so Pete had to make some major changes heading into this week. |
| With that in mind, here's a look at Prisco's top five heading into Week 8: |
Chiefs (Same as last week) Eagles (Up three spots from last week)Ravens (Up six spots from last week)Jaguars (Up three spots from last week)
49ers (Down one spot from last week) |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings: |
The biggest jump this week went to the Pittsburgh Steelers. After beating the Rams 24-17, Pete moved Pittsburgh up a whopping 11 spots with the Steelers going from 22nd to 11th. In the NFC, the biggest jump went to the Falcons. Prisco was so impressed with their 16-13 win over the Buccaneers that he moved them up eight spots from 20th to 12th. The biggest tumble in this week's rankings went to the Buccaneers, who have now fallen 14 spots over the past two weeks. Last week, Pete dropped them eight spots for losing, and this week, he dropped them six spots for their loss to the Falcons. Not sure why Pete is punishing them for a close loss, but he is, and he dropped them from 14th to 20th. Now, let's talk about the worst team in the NFL. In news that won't surprise anyone, the winless Panthers are at the bottom of the rankings and I'm guessing that they're going to stay there until they actually win a game.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 8 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
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| 4. Breech's Week 8 picks: Browns and Bengals pull off West Coast upsets |
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| It's Tuesday, which can only mean one thing around these parts: It's time for my weekly picks. |
| This is the part of the newsletter where I give you three picks, although you might want to ignore my picks this week because I'm coming off a disaster of a week where I went 4-9. I was a bigger Week 7 disappointment than the Lions. However, like the Lions, I'm still having a strong year, though, so now I'm going to go drink some tequila and forget last week ever happened. |
| With that in mind, here are three of my picks for Week 8. |
| Jacksonville (5-2) at Pittsburgh (4-2): The big problem for the Steelers in this game is that they actually have two problems: They've struggled to stop both the pass and the run this year. The Steelers defense is surrendering 383.5 yards per game, which is the third-most in the NFL, which means the Jaguars offense might have a big day. PICK: Jaguars 27-24 over Steelers. Cleveland (4-2) at Seattle (4-2): The Seahawks offense has struggled over the past two weeks and a big reason for that is because Geno Smith has turned the ball over four times (three interceptions and one lost fumble). He's also been sacked a total of six times over the past two weeks and that's concerning because he's about to face a Browns defense that has been destroying everyone in its path this year. PICK: Browns 19-16 over Seahawks. Cincinnati (3-3) at San Francisco (5-2): The Bengals are getting the 49ers in the perfect spot here. For one, Cincinnati is coming off a bye, which means Joe Burrow's calf just got an extra week to heal. Also, the already banged up 49ers will be on a short week going into this game after playing the Vikings on Monday night. I feel like the Bengals are in a good spot to steal this one. PICK: Bengals 22-19 over 49ers. |
| To check out the rest of my picks for Week 8, be sure to click here. |
| 5. NFL trade deadline: Top player at each position who needs to be dealt |
| The NFL trade deadline is just one week away, which means things could start to get kind of crazy around the NFL over the next seven days. With the Halloween deadline looming, Jordan Dajani decided to take a look at the top player at each position who needs to be dealt. |
| Let's take a look: |
| QB: Teddy Bridgewater (Lions). "The Lions have plenty of quarterbacks. Jared Goff is the starter, David Blough is on the practice squad and rookie third-round pick Hendon Hooker is on the NFI list. Maybe he could be activated soon. The journeyman Bridgewater could be available if there was a team interested."WR: Jerry Jeudy (Broncos). "There are a couple of intriguing wide receivers who could be on the move in the next week, but Jeudy is someone who needs a change of scenery. The former No. 15 overall pick out of Alabama hasn't lived up to where he was selected, but did have a career year in 2022 with 972 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 67 receptions."OT: Trent Brown (Patriots). "The Patriots left tackle has been the best tackle in the entire league this season, according to PFF, but is set to become a free agent this offseason. If the Patriots wanted to be sellers at the trade deadline, Brown is a player who will generate attention." |
| If you want to see the full list of players who should be traded, you can check out Jordan's story here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Eagles acquire All-Pro safety |
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| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Eagles make trade for Kevin Byard. The Eagles beefed up their secondary on Monday by making a trade for Titans safety Kevin Byard. The two-time All-Pro is now headed to Philly after spending the first eight seasons of his career in Tennessee. To make the deal happen, the Eagles are sending safety Terrell Edmunds, plus a 2024 fifth-round pick and 2024 sixth-rounder to Tennessee. If you want to check out our grades for this trade, be sure to click here . Dolphins selected for in-season 'Hard Knocks.' For the third straight year, the NFL will be doing an in-season "Hard Knocks" and the league announced on Monday that the Dolphins will be doing the show. The Dolphins are an entertaining team, so I'll definitely be watching. The TV schedule hasn't been announced yet, but the first episode usually airs just before Thanksgiving. Kareem Jackson suspended. The Broncos starting safety has been suspended four games without pay for making an illegal hit on Packers rookie tight end Luke Musgrave. The NFL usually will fine a player for a hit like this, but Jackson has already been fined four times this year for illegal hits, so the league decided to take his punishment to the next level.
Saints star Chris Olave arrested. The Saints receiver was arrested on Monday on suspicion of reckless drive. Olave was allegedly driving 70 mph on a road with a 35 mph speed limit, which is why police decided to pull him over. Bills lose Dawson Knox. Bills coach Sean McDermott revealed on Monday that Knox will soon be undergoing surgery on an injured wrist. It's not clear how long he'll be out, but he definitely won't be playing on Thursday when the Bills play host to the Buccaneers. |
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