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| Tuesday, July 2, 2024 |
| It's Dolphins Day! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (T-23rd) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 29.8 (6th) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 18.6 (16th) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Anthony Weaver takes over at defensive coordinator, Miami's third DC in as many years. |
| The last and only time we saw Weaver as a DC was with the Houston Texans in 2020. Houston had by far the worst run defense that season and allowed the sixth-most points overall. Weaver's Texans blitzed at the ninth-highest rate but finished right in line with the league average sack rate and forced the fewest turnovers in the NFL. Since then, he's worked as the defensive line coach for the Baltimore Ravens. |
| The Dolphins gave Jaylen Waddle a massive extension, and an even bigger deal is expected to be given to Tua Tagovailoa soon. As a result, Miami had to let a lot of defensive talent walk in free agency this summer. Interior defensive line staple Christian Wilkins, linebackers Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel, and safeties Deshon Elliott and Brandon Jones all moved on. That group combined for 3,560 defensive snaps in 2023. |
| Vegas lookahead lines have the Dolphins implied for the fourth-most points scored in 2024, and yet Miami is tied for 10th in implied win total (9.5). Do you feel the shifting winds in Miami? |
| The Dolphins were playing with a lead on 50% of offensive drives in 2023, only the 49ers, Ravens, and Lions had a higher rate. Miami was one of four teams to play with a double-digit lead on 50+ separate drives and one of two to play with a 20+ point lead on 20+ different drives. As a result, we saw Miami run the ball an abnormal amount. The Dolphins ranked 17th in pass rate (57%) on the year. But, their rate when leading or trailing by six or fewer points was the third-highest at 63%. |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Lost guard Robert Hunt and center Connor Williams in free agencySigned center Aaron Brewer in free agencySelected left tackle Patrick Paul in Round 2 |
| Connor Williams only played in nine games, but PFF graded him as the second-best run blocking center and the seventh-best pass blocker at his position. His replacement ranked 7th in run blocking grade and 27th in pass blocking. |
| Robert Hunt is a significant loss too, PFF graded him ninth in run blocking among guards and seventh in pass blocking. Miami's guard spot was a revolving door in 2023, four different guards played between 7-11 games. With Hunt gone, the remaining three will assume that work. Hunt's overall PFF grade was 76.4, the three Dolphin guards remaining on the depth chart received grades of 57.6, 45.4, and 43.2. |
| The biggest investment made into the O-Line was a long-term one. Patrick Paul is an exciting prospect, but 2024 will hopefully be a developmental year for him. Assuming health (never a safe assumption with Terron Armstead), the strength of this line is at the tackle spots. |
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| The Dolphins ranked 16th in pass blocking grade and 19th in run blocking grade in 2023, which is pretty impressive given the myriad of injuries. What's more impressive is that Mike McDaniel's scheme created even with middling offensive line play. The Dolphins had by far the quickest time to throw (2.35 seconds, the average was 2.82 and the next-lowest was 2.56), as well as the lowest QB pressure rate (24.9%, the average was 36% and the next-lowest was 29.8%). Miami also ranked first in rush success rate on RB attempts -- it wasn't just the big plays, this team was consistently producing wins in the run game. |
| Miami's offensive line will be worse on paper in 2024. I'm not sure how much it matters. The Dolphins ranked 29th in PFF pass grade in 2022 and still had the 10th-lowest sack per dropback rate. |
| If McDaniel's scheme can recreate that outcome, we could see some entertaining back-and-forth high-scoring football in the Hard Rock Stadium. |
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| Big numbers coming for the big three |
| The defense also brought in some talent, it wasn't only L's taken this summer. The Dolphins will be competitive. Safety Jordan Poyer and corner Kendall Fuller are the key free agency additions, and Miami used a Round 1 selection on edge rusher Chop Robinson. Incredible name for an edge rusher. I feel better about him than the two key free agency adds. Poyer is 33 and has shown some signs of slowing down. Fuller played phenomenally for Washington over the past three seasons but is 29 and did not command much money in free agency. None of his 2025 contract is guaranteed. |
| As we've seen in Cincinnati, things can go wrong quickly when patch-working a defense to retain an expensive offensive core. If Miami's defense is worse than expected, Dolphins games could produce some of the most outlandish Fantasy numbers we've seen. |
| When both players have been on the field together, here's how the receiving volume has been dispersed between Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle: |
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| In 287 routes run with Hill in 2023, Waddle accounted for 26.7% of targets and 37.1% of air yardage. |
| If we see more passing in this offense, both receivers are going to eat. Hill ran fewer routes than Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Reynolds, and Rondale Moore. 43 receivers ran more routes than Hill in 2023. There were 66 who ran more than Waddle. |
| On a per-route basis, 2023 was Waddle's best season. Even though he remained involved as a downfield route runner, Waddle elevated his target per route run rate from 22.4% in 2022 to 27% in 2023. |
| If we see a significant increase in dropbacks for the Dolphins, these two could go bananas for Fantasy purposes. No receiver brings as much upside as Hill. And Waddle is not far behind him, in terms of the top to his perceivable range of outcomes. Waddle's career trajectory suggests that he could continue to progress as a player as he enters what is typically a wide receiver's peak age (he'll be 26 in November). When both Waddle and Hill have been on the field over the past two seasons, Waddle has just two fewer end zone targets than his future Hall of Fame teammate. There's massive upside available to him if Miami's offense is indeed one of the top scoring units in the NFL. And, of course, there's contingency upside to ascend to the WR1 overall in Fantasy if Hill were to miss extended time for any reason. Waddle's splits without Hill on the field over the past two seasons are right in line with the role that we've seen Hill produce WR1 Fantasy points in. |
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| It's going to be very interesting to see what happens if the Dolphins are forced into situations where Mike McDaniel feels a need to be more aggressive while playing from behind, especially if pass protection is an issue. |
| I dug into 'time to throw' data a bit and found that league-wide, there's very little change, regardless of the scoreboard. McDaniel has been more sensitive to game situations. |
Miami Dolphins 'time to throw' data
(2022-23) |
2.43 seconds -- Leading
2.59 seconds -- Trailing
2.73 seconds -- Trailing by 10+ points |
| This might seem intuitive, but not every offense operates this way. |
| The NFL average time to throw (2022-23) when trailing by 10+ points is 2.83 seconds. The time to throw across all score differentials during that time was 2.81 seconds. Almost no change at all! |
| I worry about the offense derailing if forced off schedule. Tua has the fourth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate among qualified passers on throws that took more than 2.5 seconds over the past two seasons. He's completed just 46% of passes when pressured, down from a league average of 49%. This is the downside case for the offense -- if the pass protection proves to be a problem, things could fall apart. The idea of Miami's defense facilitating shootouts is fun, but only if McDaniel is able to control things. I feel less confident if it comes down to Tagovailoa to go off script and create. |
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| McDaniel has designed a well-oiled machine to create as many touches as possible for his stud receiver duo, mostly in a varied and dynamic layering of quick-hitting targets that opposing defenses can't keep up with. It has been so fun to observe. |
| Hill and Waddle benefit directly from the structure of McDaniel's offense. Both players, even possessing elite top-line speed, have been far more productive on a per-route basis on quick-hitting routes than longer-developing downfield shots. |
Miami Dolphins splits on throws that took 2.5 seconds or less:
(2022-23) |
Target per route run rate
27.8% -- Hill
20.8% -- Waddle |
Yards per route run
3.02 -- Hill
2.35 -- Waddle |
Miami Dolphins splits on throws that took 2.5 seconds or less:
(2022-23) |
Target per route run rate
36.2% -- Hill
26.2% -- Waddle |
Yards per route run
3.80 -- Hill
2.64 -- Waddle |
| Those splits were taken from a sample of routes in which both receivers were on the field together. The splits look even better if viewing any given routes, as each player sees a boost in production with the other off the field. I was curious if one receiver was the preferred "quick target," which is why I chose to examine the splits with both receivers on the field. |
| Over the past two seasons, Hill and Waddle rank first and second in yards per route run on quick targets. No offense does it better than the Dolphins. The league-wide average depth of target on quick targets during that time is 4.4 yards. Waddle's quick target aDOT (8.2) is nearly double that, and Hill's (7.3) isn't far behind. The pre-snap motion designs that McDaniel has cooked up in Miami have allowed Hill and Waddle to reach near top speed before the play has even begun, which allows the Dolphins to push deeper down the field on quick targets than most teams. If you're curious about pre-snap motion and want to learn more, this podcast from Matt Harmon and Josh Norris is excellent. |
| Will Achane's role expand? |
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| It was not just the long runs, De'Von Achane was wildly impressive across the board as a rookie. |
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| Achane was also productive as a pass-catcher. His per-route rates ranked just ahead of Travis Etienne's and Bijan Robinson's across the board, for reference. |
| The Dolphins were intentional about getting the ball into Achane's hands as a receiver, which Achane has mentioned as a point of emphasis this offseason multiple times. Should the Dolphins expand Achane's role? From a talent perspective, the answer to that question seems obvious. Will they? Can he handle a larger workload? |
| During his final season at Texas A&M, Achane worked as an every-down back. |
| Achane handled 72% of his backfield's rush attempts in 2022, the 12th-highest rate among 184 single-season rates produced by RB prospects drafted in Round 5 or higher dating back to 2017. Achane's 72% rate was higher than any single-season high posted by Kenneth Walker (71%), Jonathan Taylor (65%), or Bijan Robinson (62%). Achane suited up 10 of 12 games for A&M and handled a workload of 23.2 touches per game. He touched the rock 19 times in 9 of 10 games. We at least have some proof of an offense entrusting Achane with more than a part-time role. |
Backfield splits at full health
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| The distribution of opportunities (rushes + targets) was nearly identical every single week when both backs were healthy. Each Raheem Mostert and Achane played at least one-third of the offensive snaps simultaneously in seven games. I highlighted the splits for the Miami backfield in those games on Twitter. |
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| Both backs were involved on third downs and in the two-minute "hurry up" offense. I even looked at their snap rates in those specific "passing down" situations on a game-by-game basis to see if Miami seemed to prefer one over the other as the season progressed, there was no discernable preference. |
| One area where the preference was clear: the Dolphins wanted Mostert on the field when in scoring distance. |
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| In healthy games, Mostert accounted for 35% of Miami's red zone opportunities. For reference, here's the range that placed him in among other running backs in 2023 -- just behind David Montgomery and ahead of Breece Hall and Travis Etienne. I expect the Dolphins to score fewer rushing touchdowns in 2024 (check out this Twitter thread to find my reasoning ), but Mostert still is a candidate for double-digit scores if he enjoys another mostly healthy season. He feels too cheap in season-long Fantasy drafts. |
| I also am in on Achane at his price. My answer to the question, "Will Achane's role expand?" is almost certainly, yes. |
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| Achane brings league-winning upside and isn't all that price-prohibitive at his current average draft position. And what if Mostert doesn't enjoy another mostly healthy season? Rookie Jaylen Wright would likely assume a larger role in that scenario, but it's possible that we'd see Achane soak up a decent portion of Mostert's work. |
| The Dolphins are one of the teams that I will have the most exposure to across various Fantasy formats in 2024. Waddle is one of my favorite picks in Round 3, and I'm content selecting him in Round 2. I have Waddle ranked as the WR14. He marks the end of a tier of interchangeable players, all of whom I am very excited for and have drafted a ton of -- this tier consists of Marvin Harrison Jr., Nico Collins, Drake London, Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Olave, and Waddle. |
| I am drafting CeeDee Lamb ahead of Hill, but I sometimes grab Hill with the 1.02 pick to differentiate. Christian McCaffrey and those two form a top tier that is unique from the rest of the NFL in terms of the Fantasy-breaking upside available within their perceivable range of outcomes. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July! Wednesday's team is the Buffalo Bills as we wrap up the AFC East! On Thursday and Friday, we'll cover the AFC West! If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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