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By Michael Shepherd - Nov. 1, 2022
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📷 Gov. Janet Mills and former Gov. Paul LePage debate at CBS 13's Portland studio on Oct. 24, 2022. (BDN photo by Troy R. Bennett)
Good morning from Augusta. There is one week until Election Day.

What we're watching today


Rivals come back to key issues of costs and abortion with the election closing in. This year's competitive elections in Maine and the rest of the country can be divided into key periods. There was the spring, when Republicans rode high on basement-level approval ratings for President Joe Biden and gas prices skyrocketed. The summer was marked by a Democratic resurgence after the U.S. Supreme Court ended federal abortion rights.

The fall looks to be somewhere in the middle of those poles. Republicans have gained on the generic congressional ballot since late September, but they are not separating from Democrats like they were early in the year. It brings us to the final week, with Republicans hammering inflation and Democrats turning back to their key issue of abortion rights.

We have seen it in their messaging already this week. The campaign of former Gov. Paul LePage released a clip of Gov. Janet Mills speaking at Bates College over the weekend in which she likens inflation to a "distraction." The clip is edited and a Mills spokesperson said the governor noted policy responses to costs and was arguing that Republicans have not proposed real solutions. LePage's campaign did not provide the full clip on Tuesday.

That closing message is being hammered on TV as well. On Tuesday, LePage's campaign released an ad featuring a business owner introduced as a former Mills supporter who says the governor has been a "disaster" for Maine. The ad continues a trend of trying to make Mills bear responsibility for the global issues of costs and inflation, something that voters blamed more on federal officials than state ones in a September survey.

Mills is going back to friendly ground as well. She is holding a "Roevember" get-out-the-vote rally at Portland's Monument Square on Tuesday alongside the advocacy arm of Planned Parenthood. LePage, who has a history of anti-abortion remarks, has on his heels on the issue in debates with Mills, saying he would not sign a 15-week ban and that he was "fine" with Medicaid funding for abortion, something Republicans have been united against.

Those stances have won him little from the other side and Mills has continued to say abortion rights would be threatened under Republican control of Augusta. LePage and Mills will joust for attention to their causes over the next few days as Mainers make up their minds.
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What we're reading


📊 These four graphs show the economic eras of LePage and Mills.

âš¡ Proponents of a consumer-owned utility and a utility-backed group looking to thwart them said they have the signatures to make the 2023 ballot.

👜 Maine retail sales rose in July, but the holiday outlook is "cloudy."

💸 Bangor is behind other Maine cities on a plan to spend federal relief.

💼 Maine's high court will hear a case over a dam that has made its way into the governor's race.
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News and notes

📷 Gov. Janet Mills speaks with reporters after a session at the National Governors Association meeting in Portland on July 14, 2022. (BDN photo by Troy R. Bennett)
💰 Campaigns at all levels surge past spending records.

â—‰ The campaign between Mills and LePage has gone over $26 million in spending by outside groups and the candidates as of Tuesday morning, already going past the 2014 record set in the race between LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud.

â—‰ Rep. Jared Golden of Maine's 2nd District and former Rep. Bruce Poliquin have also drawn more outside spending than they did in 2018. The $17.3 million dedicated to the campaign so far is the fifth-highest total of any House race in the country, per tallies from campaign finance watcher Rob Pyers.

â—‰ Things are also getting wild in the Legislature. In 2020, outside groups spent just $3 million on behalf of Democratic and Republican candidates. This year, Democratic groups alone have already spent $3.3 million to hold the Senate to $837,000 for Republicans. In the House, the Democratic advantage is big but at least not exponential at $1.2 million to $714,000.

â—‰ When you add campaign spending to outside spending, the fraught race between Senate President Troy Jackson, D-Allagash, and Rep. Sue Bernard, R-Caribou, has already topped $1 million. In the House, 13 races have already exceeded the 2020 high in outside spending.

📮 Democrats are carrying a bigger early voting advantage than in 2018.

â—‰ A new round of data on absentee ballot requests was dropped on Monday by Secretary of State Shenna Bellows' office, with the 211,000 requests far exceeding Maine's total in the 2018 election. It is no shock, given the large transition to absentee voting seen in the pandemic-marked 2020 election.

â—‰ Democrats have made 51 percent of requests so far to Republicans' 23 percent. That margin was 44 percent to 28 percent to this point in the 2018 election, but it is worth noting that Republicans swamped Democrats with in-person turnout two years ago.
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