You've probably heard the concept of "selling shovels in a gold rush" before. Simply, it means that it can be highly lucrative to sit one level back in the value chain when an industry is red hot, letting everyone else fight over the biggest profits and selling them what they need along the way. Ultimately, this business model can make even more money than most of the hopeful miners and is much lower risk than trying to find the gold itself. The appeal to those in the gold rush is that a handful of them will make spectacular profits.
On Friday, we were reminded of how cyclical and difficult mining can be. AngloGold Ashanti's headline earnings for the six months to June 2022 have fallen 18.4%. Impala Platinum expects headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the year ended June 2022 to be between 13% and 21% lower than the comparable period. Meanwhile, Master Drilling' s HEPS for the six months to June 2022 has jumped by between 45.5% and 65.5%.
Shovels in a gold rush? Perhaps drills are the answer.
For these updates and many more (including details on Datatec's sale of Analysys Mason, Delta Property Fund's disposal of four properties and trading statements from CA Sales Holdings, Alviva Holdings and others), read today's edition of Ghost Bites.
Other articles today:
Podcast list:
- Episode 87 of Magic Markets with Jonathan Loeb from Westbrooke Alternative Asset Management, in which we talked about the fascinating alternative asset class of mobile home parks in the US
- Episode 2 of Ghost Stories with Justin Clarke, founder of Private Property and now Operational Director at OrbVest - a great discussion on the journey as a startup and OrbVest's US medical real estate offering to South African investors
Daily market wrap with TreasuryONE:
The US non-farm payroll number surprised heavily to the upside, with a whopping 528,000 jobs created in July vs. the expectation of 250,000. This drove a massive risk-off move, with equity indices selling off as well as emerging markets currencies. This could be the ammunition that the Fed needs to continue hi king aggressively into the back end of the year.
When US data is strong, we expect the market to climb into the US dollar and sell off other currencies. The rand spent most of Friday around the R16.60 level before dropping to R16.80 after the payroll data release. If the current trend in US data continues, that is detrimental to the rand.
This game is tricky
So there we have it - when there are lots of jobs, equities are sold off and share prices drop. It sounds like complete nonsense until you remember that more jobs = higher interest rates to fight inflation. Higher interest rates are bad news for equity values as the present value of future cash flows is lower.
Macroeconomic swings are nothing new, though the severity during and after the pandemic has been notable. Critical investment principles don't change though: find companies you like, assess their long-term prospects and buy them at a price below your estimat e of fair value.
Easier said than done, of course. The good news is that you're in the right place to learn!
Have a great Monday
