It has been almost two years since the DUP, the leading unionist party in Northern Ireland, collapsed the power-sharing agreement at Stormont in protest at the Northern Ireland protocol – the deal governing post-Brexit trade in the region. When we covered the crisis in First Edition in October 2022, the Guardian’s Ireland correspondent Rory Carroll told us: “It’s been one crisis after another. The assembly hasn’t functioned for four of the last six years.” You can now make that six of the last eight.
But very early this morning, and after months of tortuous negotiations between the UK government and the DUP, that finally changed. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said that the deal offered by secretary of state for Northern Ireland Chris Heaton-Harris had been endorsed by a “decisive” vote among his 120-member party executive, and that he was confident that Northern Ireland’s place in the UK’s internal market would be ensured.
Here’s a reminder of the path to this point, and what the decision will mean for Northern Ireland.
Why was the DUP boycotting Stormont?
As a way to exert leverage over the government in its campaign to force changes to the post-Brexit trade arrangements in Northern Ireland. The DUP collapsed the Stormont executive in February 2022 in protest at checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain, arguing that the set-up diminishes the region’s place in the UK internal market and ultimately undermines its position as part of the UK.
Then Sinn Féin won regional elections in May of the same year, giving it the symbolic first minister position for the first time, and the DUP began a full boycott of the assembly. Some of the DUP’s critics believe that the prospect of Republican leadership at Stormont was an additional motivating factor for the party’s refusal to change its stance. The DUP’s decision has been popular with its own supporters, which has made ending the boycott more complicated.
What has that meant for Northern Ireland?
Although the DUP represents just a quarter of Northern Ireland’s voters, its boycott has meant that Stormont has not been able to operate at all under the terms set out by the Good Friday agreement. That has meant civil servants in Belfast running the region according to tight budgets set in London.
Officials have felt constrained by their lack of a democratic mandate and have been unable to make vital decisions on changes to public spending – leading to the biggest day of strike action in the country’s history on 18 January. Money has been promised by Westminster to resolve public sector pay disputes, but will not be released until the Assembly returns.
Meanwhile, important legislation such as Dáithí’s Law - which would introduce an opt-out organ donation system - has also been held up. Rory Carroll summarised the situation in his report this morning as “a form of auto-pilot amid a fiscal crisis, crumbling public services, strikes and doubts about whether devolved government would ever return”.
What’s changed?
In December, Heaton-Harris offered a £2.5bn financial package to settle the pay claims and fund public services, but said that it was conditional on the DUP returning to Stormont. The package also included a stabilising fund to give a new executive a fiscal cushion for four years, additional powers for the executive to spend money, and an extension on a payback period for previous overspends to five years.
Meanwhile, talks between the DUP and the UK government over the Northern Ireland protocol have been going on for at least seven months. Last night, Donaldson said that legislation agreed with Westminster would “remove checks on goods moving within the UK and remaining in NI, and end NI blindly following EU laws”. And he said that unfettered access to the rest of the UK for Northern Ireland business would be guaranteed subject to new legislation being passed in parliament.
What happened at Monday night’s talks?
Even those attending the talks were not supposed to know where they were until a few hours before they began – but by the time DUP politicians arrived at the Larchfield Estate, a wedding and corporate events venue outside Belfast, dozens of hardline protesters were assembled outside to greet them. They sang loyalist songs, held union jack flags, and held signs saying “Stop DUP sellout”.
Meanwhile, the Traditional Unionist Voice party – a hardline rival to the DUP – denounced Donaldson and the deal, calling it a “betrayal”. A prominent loyalist, Jamie Bryson, appeared to have sources inside the room, and live-tweeted the meeting. He claimed this morning that he had been told that “DUP executive members … were ‘bounced’ into a vote based not on having seen the legal text of any deal, but rather solely on the spin via a glossy power-point by those who negotiated it”.
Bryson also claimed that prominent DUP members including Nigel Dodds, the former deputy leader, spoke out against a deal. Donaldson claimed that his account was “a misrepresentation of what was said and what was happening”. But he declined to provide the numbers supporting the deal.
What happens next?
There is an 8 February legislative deadline for forming an administration at Stormont. Sinn Féin’s leader, Mary Lou McDonald, expressed optimism that that could now be met, and said that “Sinn Féin will now engage with the parties and both governments to ensure we now all press on without delay”.
The deal underpinning the DUP’s decision is yet to be published and will be examined by Conservative MPs for any sign that it weakens the UK’s ability to diverge from EU rules. But it is expected to be passed in Westminster. Meanwhile, there may be more expressions of opposition from unionist hardliners in the days ahead – and there is at least some risk of a party split within the DUP if those concerns cannot be allayed.
Nonetheless, Heaton-Harris expressed optimism that the Assembly will soon return, and get Stormont back to the business of governing. “The parties entitled to form an Executive are meeting tomorrow to discuss these matters,” Heaton-Harris said. “I hope to be able to finalise this deal with the political parties as soon as possible.”
