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| Wednesday, November 3, 2021 |
| Happy Wednesday everyone but especially fans of the Atlanta Braves! Although I suppose we can also loop in a whole lot of other baseball fans who weren't particularly keen on the idea of the Houston Astros taking another World Series. It's Dan Schneier here wrapping up the baseball season with the conclusion of the World Series last night. The Braves grabbed Game 6 and wrapped up what was a true master class in how to manage a season. As Frank Stampfl put it best on Tuesday night: "For a team to lose maybe the best player in the game (Ronald Acuna Jr.) and do this is really something. A complete master class by the Braves front office to acquire Soler, Joc, Duvall, and Rosario, all of whom made major contributions this postseason." |
| The game broke open in the top of the third innings when Jorge Soler stepped up to the plate with two outs. An eight-pitch at bat led to a cutter that hung just a little too inside the zone and Soller sent the baseball out of the park -- literally. Soler would also score later after drawing a walk being driven in by Freddie Freeman. The in-season acquisition was later named the World Series MVP after finishing 6-for-20 with three home runs and six RBI. He'll enter this offseason as an intriguing free agent after making a major contribution to Atlanta's world series bid. |
| Of course, as always, you can follow to make sure you get the latest episodes of Fantasy Baseball Today right when they drop on Apple and Spotify. |
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| Early 2022 Outfield Rankings |
| Scott White unveiled his early 2022 outfield rankings on the site so we're going to break down some of the rankings that stood out most to us, like what to make of Tyler O'Neill's surprising 2021 breakout and more. |
| But first, let's take a look at the 2021 season in review with the top-5 outfielders by how they finished in Fantasy. |
| 1. Shohei Ohtani (won't have outfield eligibility in 2022*): .257, 46 HR, 103 runs, 100 RBI, 26 SB |
| It finally all came together and he stayed healthy. Ohtani finished No. 1 in baseball in barrel rate and Max EV. However, here's a look at his second half slash lines: .229/.839 OPS, 19.6% BB, 30.7% K. The groundballs went up, fly balls came down and HR/FB ratio regressed. |
| 2. Fernando Tatis: .282, 42 HR, 99 runs, 97 RBI, 25 SB |
| 3. Teoscar Hernandez: .296, 32 HR, 92 runs, 116 RBI, 12 SB |
| Hernandez continued his improvement year over year, specifically with his contact -- 33% K rate in 2019, 30% K rate in 2020, 25% in 2021. He hits the ball very hard, 25.6% LD rate is 6th among qualified hitters since the start of 2020. It's easy to get excited about Hernandez for 2022 given that he hits the ball hard and has a strong lineup around him. |
| 4. Bryce Harper: .309, 35 HR, 101 runs, 84 RBI, 13 SB, 10th overall |
| This might have been the best version of Harper that we've seen. He's now had two straight seasons of at least a .297 xBA. Harper struggled in May while playing hurt, but bounced back with a 1.104 OPS from June 1st on. |
| 5. Juan Soto: .313, 29 HR, 111 runs, 95 RBI, 9 SB |
| Harper was first in OPS from June 1 on, Juan Soto was second (1.078 OPS). Remember when some were worried about Soto being a bust heading into the All-Star break? That seems like forever ago. Soto's 22% BB rate and 14% K rate make him amazing in points leagues. |
| After an insanely slow April, Astros OF Kyle Tucker finally lived up to his hype from that point on and comes in as Scott's No. 7 OF heading into the 2022 season: "The 24-year-old's big breakout is all the more impressive when you consider he hit .181 with a .610 OPS in April, when offense was way down across the league. He was genuinely elite for the five months that followed, contributing in all five categories with the sort of strikeout rate that suggests his improved batting average is here to stay." |
| The biggest breakout at the position was probably Orioles OF Cedric Mullins and Scott remains bullish on him heading into 2022 -- ranking him No. 9 among all OF: "Ditching switch-hitting seemed like a sensible plan for Mullins given his career splits, but who could have seen him being this year's only 30/30 man? The power was the most unexpected part, and while the Statcast data suggests he's probably closer to the .261 hitter we saw in the second half than the .314 hitter we saw in the first, this ranking affords him some slippage." |
| Are we buying on O'Neill heading into 2022? |
| Scott is concerned with O'Neill's strikeout rate (balooning to 30%) but makes it clear that the Statcast numbers loved him in 2021. When you strike out that much, there's a higher margin for error, but Scott doesn't see much of a reason to dismiss him in 2022 drafts. He's the definition of a post-hype sleeper as most had given up on him transforming into a Fantasy asset. Scott doesn't rank him as high as he finished in 2021 (No. 10 at the position) but ranks him No. 23 in the OF heading into 2022: "How beautiful the breakthrough was for O'Neill once the Cardinals finally committed to playing him, with a two-month stretch at the end that saw him hit .318 with a 1.033 OPS. The strikeout rate will give you pause, but with the way he hammers the ball, Statcast says he earned every bit of his stat line. He can fly, too, so his 15 steals may not be the ceiling." |
| Frank wants to see O'Neill prove it over a full season from a health standpoint but can see Teoscar Hernandez type situation with O'Neill if he can cut down on his strikeout rate. |
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| Early 2022 Starting Pitcher ranings |
| Scott White got also broke out the early 2022 Starting Pitcher Rankings. These are a few of the rankings that stood out the most and we'll break those down today. |
| No. 4 -- Brewers SP Corbin Burnes: "The MLB leader in ERA and K/9 (who also had a 1.63 FIP) would rank behind only Jacob deGrom pitch for pitch, but he'll have to prove he can bounce back from a big workload after being coddled in seasons prior." |
| No. 9 -- Blue Jays SP Robbie Ray: "Speaking of unlikely breakthroughs, this 30-year-old figured out how to throw strikes consistently while also upping his velocity, taking him from scrapheap to hardware city. As with Zack Wheeler, it's mostly a question of whether you trust it." |
| No. 14 -- Aaron Nola: "His 4.63 ERA simply didn't jibe with his 3.37 xFIP (or whatever estimator you prefer), and it's not like he's a chronic offender in that regard. The hope is he had some bad luck on home runs and will regain his ace standing at a discount." |
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| News and notes |
| The Padres have their new manager in Bob Melvin who spent the last 11 seasons with the A's.The Mariners will not pick up Kyle Seager's option, which was expected.Charlie Morton underwent surgery to repair the fractured fibula he suffered in Game 1 of the World Series.Jameson Taillon underwent surgery on his ankle and is expected to miss five months. |
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