| Today's Economy
U.S. Retailers Ramp Up Productivity During Pandemic Fewer workers are selling more goods in most retail segments. LatAm Daily Briefing: Brazil Starts Year in Positive Territory The economy’s reactivation will continue through 2021 despite the persistence of the pandemic. Money Burns a Hole in U.S. Consumer Pockets Retail sales jumped in March, boosting our tracking estimate of Q1 GDP. Europe Daily Briefing: Energy Pushes CPI Higher in March Energy price increases raised inflation rates in the euro zone core. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
China Risk Matrix Update: Good Signs, but... Uncertainty remains high given how quickly the pandemic situation can evolve domestically and abroad. Strength of U.S. Recovery Depends on Where You Look Differences are evident not just by region, but by type of activity. Global Outlook: Recovery Fraught With Risk Fiscal and monetary stimulus continue to support domestic demand, though economies are diverging amid virus outbreaks and vaccine rollouts. U.S. Credit Outlook: Good Times Ahead Active balances across all products moved higher in March and are up more than 4.1% relative to year-ago levels. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2021: US$1.56 bil
Indonesia's trade surplus shrank in March to $1.56 billion, down from a revised $1.99 billion in February. Germany
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2021: 1.7%
German inflation gained pace in March, rising to 1.7% y/y after prices increased by 1.3% in February. Finland
Retail Sales
Feb. 2021: 1.3%
Finland's seasonally adjusted retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, were up 1.3% m/m in February, though this was a smaller increase than the downwardly revised 2.7% gain in January. Belgium
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2021: 0.9%
Consumer price growth in Belgium crept higher in March, rising to 0.9% y/y from 0.5% y/y in February. France
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2021: 1.1%
France’s consumer price index turned it up a notch last month. Italy
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2021: 0.8%
Italy's headline inflation rate accelerated to 0.8% y/y in March from 0.6% previously, as energy prices increased in year-ago terms for the first time since February 2020. Belgium
Industrial Production
Feb. 2021: 0.3%
Canada
ADP Canada National Employment Report
Mar. 2021: 634,797
ADP Canada’s National Employment Report adds another signal that the labor market may be turning a corner. Canada
Survey of Manufacturing
Feb. 2021: -1.6%
Manufacturing moved the wrong direction in February. United States
Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index
Apr. 2021: 104.2
The Moody’s Analytics Beige Book Index rose to 104.2 in April from 75 in March. United States
Jobless Claims
April 10: 576,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits have been fairly unreliable but maybe they are finally beginning to catch up with the rest of the labor market data. United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Apr. 2021: 26.3
The picture keeps getting brighter for manufacturers in New York. United States
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Apr. 2021: 50.2
Manufacturing activity in the Federal Reserve’s Third District continues to expand aggressively. United States
Retail Sales
Mar. 2021: 9.8%, m/m
Retail sales soared in March at the fastest pace in history, other than the gain in May 20202 when businesses began to reopen from the pandemic shutdowns. India
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2021: -US$13.9 bil
India's foreign trade deficit widened in March to $13.93 billion, from $12.62 billion in February. United States
Industrial Production
Mar. 2021: 1.4% m/m
The March economic data have been strong, with some attributed to weather-related payback. Russian Federation
Industrial Production
Mar. 2021: 1.1%
Russia's industrial production rebounded sharply in March. World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2020Q4: 6.9%
We estimate that real global GDP rose 6.9% at an annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared with the 34.3% gain in the prior three months. United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Feb. 2021: 0.5% m/m
Business inventories increased in February. United States
NAHB Housing Market Index
Apr. 2021: 83
Homebuilder confidence as measured by the NAHB composite housing index rose 1 point to 83 in April. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
April 09: -0.92
The St. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
April 09: 61 bil cubic feet
Last week’s increase in natural gas inventories was just under analyst expectations, so this report should have a small but positive effect on prices. United States
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
Mar. 2021: 31.8 weeks, NSA
New-vehicle affordability stabilized in March. Peru
Unemployment
Mar. 2021: 15.3%
The job market in metropolitan Lima came under further strain in March as the pandemic's prolonged third wave took a toll on hiring. Singapore
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2021:
Colombia
Industrial Production
Feb. 2021: 0.6% y/y
Manufacturing output increased 0.6% y/y in February after falling 1.6% in the previous month. Argentina
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2021: 42.6% y/y
Argentina's statistics office’s national consumer price index increased 4.8% in March, up from 3.3% a year earlier. United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Feb. 2021: $4.2 bil
Net long-term capital flows were positive for the tenth straight month in February. China
Fixed Asset Investment
Mar. 2021:
China
Industrial Production
Mar. 2021:
China
Retail Sales
Mar. 2021:
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