| Today's Economy
Powell Nonplussed The Fed chair’s remarks Wednesday put squarely the immense challenge trade policies pose for the U.S. economy. U.S. High-Frequency GDP Update: Sluggish Our model's latest estimate puts first-quarter real growth at a weak 0.7% annualized pace. Inside Economics Podcast: Jared Bernstein's Head Is Spinning Where is the U.S.-China trade war headed? Europe Daily Briefing: Inflation Day Both the U.K. and euro zone consumer price measures decelerated in March. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Consumer Behavior in a Recession Households respond to recessions by cutting discretionary big-ticket expenses, but details vary with each downturn. U.S. Road to Recession: Rising Uncertainty While forward-looking indicators have fallen, the real economy appears to be holding up. Euro Zone Risk Matrix: Awaiting Clarity on Tariffs While we do not forecast further market disorder, the situation could change quickly. U.S. Chartbook: Uncertainty Is the Name of the Game Bond yields pressed higher even as the White House issued a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
United Kingdom
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2025: 2.6% y/y
Consumer price inflation was 2.6% in March, down from 2.8% in February. Austria
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2025: 2.9% y/y
Austria’s CPI inflation rate was 2.9% y/y in March, easing from February’s 3.2%. Italy
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2025: 1.9% y/y
In March, Italy's headline consumer price inflation rose to 1.9% year over year from 1.6% previously, confirming our forecast. Euro Zone
Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2025: 2.2% y/y
The euro zone’s HICP inflation rate eased to 2.2% y/y in March from 2.3% in February. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
April 11: -8.5%
Mortgage activity reversed course as rates jumped amid extraordinary bond market volatility. United States
Retail Sales
Mar. 2025: 1.4%, m/m
Retail sales surged in April, but the gain was dominated by consumers buying autos ahead of assumed tariff-generated price increases. India
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2025: -US$21.5 bil
India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to $21.5 billion in March, compared with a $14 billion deficit in February. United States
Industrial Production
Mar. 2025: -0.3% m/m
U.S. industrial production ticked down 0.3% from February to March. United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Feb. 2025: 0.2% m/m
Business inventories rose 0.2% in February, on par with the consensus forecast. United States
NAHB Housing Market Index
Apr. 2025: 40
Homebuilder confidence inched up 1 point to 40 in April, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index. Canada
Monetary Policy
Apr. 2025:
United States
Median usual weekly earnings
2025Q1: 4.8% y/y
Median usual weekly earnings rose 4.8% on a year-ago basis in the first quarter as CPI increased 2.7% in the same period. United States
Oil Inventories
April 11: 442.9 mil barrels
An unexpected increase in crude oil inventories could weigh on oil prices. United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Feb. 2025: $112 bil
The U.S. experienced an inflow of net long-term international capital in February. New Zealand
Consumer Price Index
2025Q1:
Japan
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2025:
Singapore
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2025:
South Korea
Monetary Policy
Apr. 2025:
Australia
Employment Situation
Mar. 2025:
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