Today's Economy

From 1 October, a 100% tariff will apply to Chinese electric vehicles.

With no surprises from the latest PCE deflator, the Fed will start loosening policy in mid-September.

Canada slapped a 100% surtax on Chinese-made EVs, mirroring moves made by the U.S. and Europe.

Falling inflation makes room for the central bank to lower interest rates.

Commentary

Our call for a 190,000-job payroll gain in August is above consensus and is owed to several factors.

We expect a modest rebound in July retail sales for the euro zone, and GDP growth for the single-currency region is likely to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q.

Base effects in the energy segment, the culprit behind a July reacceleration, will likely be the cause of a lower August reading.

Australia's economy likely grew 0.2% q/q in the June quarter.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession
Aug. 2024: 32.4%
World recession risks rose to 32.4% with data through May, indicating a low risk of global recession.

Thailand
Industrial Production
Jul. 2024: 1.8% y/y
Thai industrial production grew 1.8% year on year in July, proving our forecast for a 3% decline to be too pessimistic.

France
GDP
2024Q2: 0.2% q/q
Final estimates showed that France’s GDP grew by 0.2% q/q in the second quarter after a 0.3% advance in the first, slightly weaker than the initial estimate of 0.3%.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Jul. 2024: -US$1.4 bil
Thailand’s foreign trade balance tumbled to a deficit of $1.4 billion in July from a surplus of $218.1 million in June.

Italy
Unemployment
Jul. 2024: 6.5%
In July, Italy’s unemployment rate fell to 6.5%, significantly below our forecast of 7%.

Germany
Unemployment
Aug. 2024: 6%
Germany’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 6% in August.

Hong Kong SAR (China)
Retail Sales
Jul. 2024: -11.8% y/y
Hong Kong’s retail sales fell 11.8% year over year in value terms in July.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2024: 2.2% y/y
The euro zone’s HICP inflation rate slowed to 2.2% y/y in August from 2.6% in July.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Jul. 2024: 6.4%
The euro zone unemployment rate inched lower to 6.4% in July.

Finland
GDP
2024Q2: 0.3% q/q
Final estimates showed Finland’s real GDP advanced by 0.3% quarter over quarter in the second quarter, identical to an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in the first quarter.

Spain
Retail Sales
Jul. 2024: 0.5% m/m
In seasonally adjusted and calendar-adjusted terms, Spain’s retail sales expanded 0.5% month over month in July.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Jul. 2024: 6.8%
The rate of unemployment continued to drop in July as the economy keeps advancing and creating jobs.

India
GDP
2024Q2: 6.7% y/y
India’s real GDP for the June quarter grew 6.7% year over year, slowing significantly from the previous quarter’s reading of 7.8%.

Canada
GDP
2024Q2: 2.1% SAAR
A surge in government spending and a bounce in business investment helped deliver a modest GDP gain in the second quarter.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Jun. 2024: 0.0% m/m
Real gross domestic product moved sideways in June following a modest gain of 0.1% in the month prior.

United States
Personal Income
Jul. 2024: 0.3% m/m
Nominal personal income continues to advance at a healthy clip.

United States
PCE Deflator
Jul. 2024: 0.2% m/m
In July, the personal consumption expenditure deflator rose 0.2%, in line with expectations.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Jul. 2024: 0.4% m/m
Real consumer spending posted its third straight month of healthy to strong growth in July.

Chile
Employment
Jul. 2024: 8.7%
The labor market took a step back in July amid a weak economic recovery.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Jul. 2024: 5.1% y/y
Chile’s manufacturing production reported a significant rebound in July after two months of industrial contractions.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Jul. 2024: 4.3% y/y
Retail sales in Chile stumbled in July, underscoring the less than sturdy nature of the recovery.

Belgium
GDP
2024Q2: 0.2% q/q
Final estimates showed that Belgium’s real GDP advanced by 0.2% q/q in the second quarter of 2024, slowing from a 0.3% rise in the first quarter.

Portugal
GDP
2024Q2: 0.1% q/q
Portugal's second-quarter GDP figures came in weaker than expected.

United States
Moody’s Analytics House Price Index
Jul. 2024: 5.4%
House price appreciation accelerated in July, according to the Moody’s Analytics House Price Index.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Aug. 2024: 67.9
Confidence remains under pressure and the large market drop near the start of the month was undoubtedly a drag on confidence.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Jul. 2024: -2.7% m/m

China
Manufacturing PMI
Aug. 2024: