| Today's Economy
LatAm Daily Briefing: Second Wave Threatens Peru's Recovery Policymakers face a stark choice: Reimpose restrictions, or let the economic recovery roll on. Europe Daily Briefing: Body Blow to Italy's Q2 GDP Domestic demand plunged while net trade weighed heavily on growth. Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: China's Manufacturing Eased in August Japan's industrial production rallied in July, a sign that demand is turning a corner. Economic Roundup: A Hurricane in the Political Calculus U.S. deflation fears eased, but it will take several months for inflation to approach the Fed’s 2% target. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Chartbook: Where Do We Go From Here? The economic recovery hinges on the prevalence of the virus and the next fiscal stimulus package. U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 31, 2020 The ADP National Employment Report will help to gauge private employment. U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: School's in Session, for Now Our high-frequency GDP model now has third-quarter GDP tracking 29.2% at an annualized rate. This Week in the COVID-19 Crisis While the Trump administration and Congress dither, the Fed continues to act. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Japan
Consumer Confidence
Aug. 2020: 29.3
Japan’s consumer confidence index slipped in August, dipping 0.2 point to 29.3, from 29.5 in July. Taiwan (Province of China)
GDP
2020Q2: -0.6%
Taiwan's economic contraction for the second quarter was revised to 0.6% y/y, according to the preliminary estimate, following advanced estimates of -0.7%. Italy
GDP
2020Q2: -12.8%
Final numbers show that Italy's GDP contracted by 12.8% q/q in the second quarter, the sharpest on record, below preliminary estimates of a 12.4% slump. India
GDP
2020Q2: -23.9%
India’s real GDP growth for the first quarter (April-June) of fiscal 2020-2021 declined by 23.9% y/y, compared with a 3.1% y/y gain (before revision) in the fourth quarter (January-March) of fiscal 2019-2020. Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Jul. 2020: 0.7%
Rallying energy prices again drove up producer prices. Canada
Building Permits
Jul. 2020: -3.0%
After rebounding from the pandemic-related shutdowns, the rate of new construction intentions has stabilized a little short of precrisis levels, primarily a function of depressed nonresidential permits. Chile
Manufacturing Production
Jul. 2020: -7.21%
The national industry continued to report annual contraction, but production already started to reactivate in June. Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Jul. 2020: -11.2%
Chile’s retail and wholesale sales index dropped 11.1% in July, slightly better than our forecast, as the effects of COVID-19 continued to weigh on economic growth. World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
August 28: -15.8
Businesses across the globe remain pessimistic. United States
Risk of Recession
Jun. 2020: 52%
The probability of the U.S. being in recession in the next six months fell from 77% in May to 52% in June. United States
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Aug. 2020: 8.0
Texas factory activity rebounded in August. Virtually all current component indicators showed positive margins, and many of the spreads were in double digits. South Korea
Foreign Trade
Aug. 2020:
Colombia
Monetary Policy
Aug. 2020: 2.00%
Colombia’s central bank cut the reference interest rate by 25 basis points after Monday’s regular meeting. Japan
Employment Situation
Jul. 2020:
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