| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Saying that the July ADP National Employment Report was a surprise is an understatement. Capital Market View: Markets Underestimating the Fed If the Fed tightens as slowly as markets are expecting, they risk dislodging inflation expectations. Europe Daily Briefing: European PMIs Still Strong in July Composite PMIs point to growth at the start of the third quarter. LatAm Daily Briefing: Labor Market Improves in Uruguay The result follows sustained progress in the pace of COVID-19 inoculations. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Household Bankruptcy Filings Will Remain Low for a While The longer-term outlook is far less certain. U.S. Inflation Tracker: What's Ahead? There will not be a smooth arc in the second half of 2021, but price growth will nevertheless decelerate over the next few months. U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 3, 2021 The unemployment rate likely fell by 0.3 of a percentage point to 5.7% in July. Global Vaccine Tracker: Dealing With Delta Asian economies are struggling against the spread of the COVID-19 variant. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Thailand
Monetary Policy
Aug. 2021: 0.5%
The Bank of Thailand held its interest rate steady at 0.5% during its scheduled meeting in August, as a raging COVID-19 outbreak is weighing on Thailand’s economy. Austria
Retail Sales
Jun. 2021: 5.0% y/y
Retail sales continued their positive trend in June, having grown in every month since February with the exception of April. Italy
Retail Sales
Jun. 2021: 0.7% m/m
Retail sales in Italy grew by 0.7% m/m in June after contracting by 0.1% in May. Euro Zone
Retail Sales
Jun. 2021: 1.5% m/m
Retail sales excluding motor vehicles increased by 1.5% m/m in June, adding to a 4.1% increase in May. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
July 30: -1.7%
Mortgage applications fell 1.7% in the week of July 30, undoing some of last week’s revised 7% gain (previously 5.7%). United States
Vehicle Sales - BEA
Jul. 2021: 14.8 mil, SAAR
U.S. new-vehicle sales were exceptionally soft in July. United States
ADP National Employment Report
Jul. 2021: 330,000 m/m, ths
The labor market recovery is proceeding with a bit more caution. Canada
Building Permits
Jun. 2021: 6.9% m/m
After taking a breather in May, building permits continued their vertiginous climb in June. United States
Bankruptcy Filings
2021Q2: -8.1% y/y
Personal bankruptcy filings remained low in the second quarter as more stimulus payments, increased unemployment insurance, and lender forbearance continued to support household finances. United States
Monthly GDP
Jun. 2021: 0.0% m/m
Our estimate of U.S. real monthly GDP didn’t budge in June, suggesting the economy lost momentum heading into this quarter. United States
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index
Jul. 2021: 64.1
The U.S. nonmanufacturing sector expanded strongly in July. United States
Oil Inventories
July 30: 439.2 mil barrels
An unexpected increase in crude oil stocks will exert some downward pressure on oil prices. Australia
Datium Insights - Moody’s Analytics Used Vehicle Price Index
Jul. 2021: 27.4% y/y
Australian used-vehicle price appreciation decelerated in July. Indonesia
GDP
2021Q2:
Uruguay
Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2021: 7.3% y/y
Uruguayan inflation rose above the 7% upper limit for a second consecutive month and came in at 7.3% in July. United States
Semiconductor Billings
Jun. 2021: 2.1%
Worldwide sales of semiconductors continue to reach new heights. Brazil
Monetary Policy
Aug. 2021:
Australia
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2021:
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