Economy.com Daily Update: December 11, 2020

Today's Economy

We weren't surprised by the U.S. PPI, but consumer confidence unexpectedly increased.

Passenger travel is still down more than 90% since the pandemic began.

Conflict over conditional funding highlighted how far Hungary and Poland have drifted from other member states.

The central bank wants to keep liquidity loose during the latest coronavirus wave.

Commentary

Colombia is likely to have recovered while Argentina and Peru struggle.

Lockdowns are having an adverse impact particularly on hours worked, restaurant spending and employment.

We expect that the euro zone’s external trade surplus rose to €32 billion in October from €24.8 billion in September.

China’s industrial production is likely to have increased by 7.1% in yearly terms in November.

Today's Economic Indicators

Germany
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2020: -0.3%
Headline consumer prices fell by 0.3% y/y in November, following a 0.2% drop in the previous month.

Spain
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2020: -0.8%
Spain’s consumer price index declined by 0.8% on a year-ago basis in November, a similar drop to the one recorded in October.

Italy
Industrial Production
Oct. 2020: 1.3%
Italy's industrial production ticked up 1.3% m/m in October, after falling in September, mainly thanks to strong growth in capital goods production.

India
Industrial Production
Oct. 2020: 3.6%
Quick estimates of India’s industrial production came in above expectations in October.

Russian Federation
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2020: US$6.4 bil
Russia’s trade balance surrendered many of its recent gains in October.

Canada
Industrial Capacity Utilization
2020Q3: 76.5%
Canadian industrial capacity utilization made up some of its lost ground in the third quarter.

United States
Producer Price Index
Nov. 2020: 0.1%
The U.S. producer price index increased 0.1% in November, in line with both our and consensus expectations.

Mexico
Industrial Production
Oct. 2020: -3.3%
Mexico’s industrial reopening advanced in October, after a mild hiccup in September, posting a positive advance in monthly terms.

Peru
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2020: 0.25%
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru kept the policy rate at 0.25% in its December meeting and reaffirmed its commitment to expansionary policy until the economic blow wrought by the pandemic recedes.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
December 09: 80.0
Hoping for a rebound after the Thanksgiving holiday, the Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index disappointed this week.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Dec. 2020: 81.4
U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly jumped 4.5 points in December despite the surge in infections, nearly reversing its November decline.

World
Moody's Analytics Global CPI
Nov. 2020: 0.3%
Our estimate of global consumer prices showed a 0.3% y/y increase in November, following a 0.2% gain in October.