Economy.com Daily Update: December 15, 2020

Today's Economy

The sharp drop follows similar declines in other parts of the globe.

Though some states have tightened restrictions, manufacturing will be less impacted this time.

Sustained CPI growth won't happen until demand for travel ramps up again.

The momentum in industrial activity is vital to sustaining the rebound.

Commentary

We didn't predict a pandemic.

The window for Congress to act is closing as the recovery pushes forward with marked fragility.

Retail sales are forecast to have declined in November as surging COVID-19 cases and cooler temperatures hurt restaurants.

While charge-off rates have yet to rise, asset quality is difficult to read.

Today's Economic Indicators

France
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2020: 0.2%
France’s consumer price index rose by 0.2% y/y in November, following two consecutive months of no gains.

United Kingdom
Unemployment
Oct. 2020: 4.9%
The U.K. unemployment rate rose to 4.9% in the three months to October from 4.3% in the previous quarter.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2020: -0.2%
Italy's headline CPI ticked down by 0.2% y/y in November, in line with preliminary estimates.

Peru
Unemployment
Nov. 2020: 15.1%
The job market in the Lima metropolitan area showed a bit more spunk in the September-November rolling quarter, logging a net job gain of 270,000 over the prior rolling quarter.

India
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2020: -US$9.9 bil
India’s trade deficit rose to $9.9 billion in November from $8.7 billion in October.

Canada
Housing Starts
Nov. 2020: 246 ths
Housing starts continued to soar in November.

Canada
Survey of Manufacturing
Oct. 2020: 0.3%
Manufacturing sales ticked up at a moderate pace in October, demonstrating the slowdown in the overall economic recovery from COVID-19.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Oct. 2020: -2.5%
Total new-vehicle sales fell by 8.5% between September and October, contracting 2.5% from a year earlier.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Nov. 2020: 0.1%
U.S. import prices rose 0.1% in November, a little less than either we or the consensus expected.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Dec. 2020: 4.9
Manufacturers in New York are growing more ambivalent about economic conditions.

Russian Federation
Industrial Production
Nov. 2020: -2.6%
Russia's industrial production made progress in November, with losses decelerating to 2.6% from a 5.9% decline in October.

United States
Industrial Production
Nov. 2020: 0.4%
U.S. industrial production increased 0.4% in November, better than our forecast for a 0.2% gain.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2020Q3: 35.6%
The COVID-19 crisis delivered a big blow to the global economy in the second quarter but as countries began to reopen, economic activity resumed.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
December 11: 349.8
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index fell from 366.3 to 349.8 in the week ended December 11.

United States
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
Nov. 2020: 32.5 Weeks
New-vehicle affordability increased in November, the first such movement since May.

Argentina
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2020: 35.8%
The statistics office’s national consumer price index increased 3.2% in November, down from 4.3% a year earlier.

United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Oct. 2020: $51.9 bil
Net long-term capital flows were positive for the sixth straight month in October.

South Korea
Employment
Nov. 2020:

Japan
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2020:

China
Fixed Asset Investment
Nov. 2020: 2.6%
China's economic recovery continues to ramp up, with the January-November fixed asset investment growing by 2.6% y/y, up from the 1.8% rise in January-October.