Economy.com Daily Update: December 16, 2021

Today's Economy

Housing starts enjoyed their strongest one-month increase since March.

We now have fourth-quarter GDP growth on track to rise 7.6% at an annualized rate.

The widening in spreads next year will push high-yield issuance below $500 billion.

The central bank acts aggressively in response to excessive demand and rising inflation.

Commentary

Brexit provides the U.K. with an opportunity to rewrite regulation to strengthen comparative advantage in key sectors.

A more complete look through the second quarter signals a potential undercount.

Congress has averted a shutdown and a first-ever default, but the BBBA is unresolved.

Since the region's summer surge in inflation, central banks have hiked interest rates quickly.

Today's Economic Indicators

Norway
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2021: 0.50%
Norges Bank increased its sight deposit rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% at its December meeting.

Hong Kong SAR (China)
Employment Situation
Nov. 2021: 4.1%
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Hong Kong fell to 4.1% for the September to November period, compared with 4.3% for the August to October period.

Sweden
Unemployment rate
Nov. 2021: 8.3%
Sweden’s unemployment rate declined to 8.3% in November from 8.5% in October.

Switzerland
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2021: -0.75
As expected, the Swiss National Bank maintained its policy rate at -0.75% at its Thursday meeting.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Oct. 2021: €3.6 bil
The euro zone's not seasonally adjusted trade surplus in goods plunged to €3.6 billion in October, from €29.8 billion a year earlier.

Euro Zone
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2021: 0%
The European Central Bank provided a modest update to its policy stance that was mostly in line with our and market expectations.

United Kingdom
Monetary Policy and Minutes
Dec. 2021: 0.25%
The Bank of England surprised some market analysts by voting 8-1 to increase the bank rate by 15 basis points to 0.25%.

Canada
ADP Canada National Employment Report
Nov. 2021: 231,800
Employment growth in November increased by a healthy 231,800 positions.

Canada
New Housing Price Index
Nov. 2021:

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Oct. 2021:

Canada
Wholesale Trade
Oct. 2021: 1.4% m/m
Wholesale trade continued its hot streak in October.

United States
Jobless Claims
December 11: 206,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits are volatile this time of year, so one needs to take them with a grain of salt.

United States
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Dec. 2021: 15.4
The Philly Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows that growth in factory activity persisted into December but was less widespread than in the prior month.

United States
New Residential Construction (C20)
Nov. 2021: 1.679 mil, SAAR
After softening for a short period of time, U.S. residential investment has come roaring back.

United States
Industrial Production
Nov. 2021: 0.5% m/m
U.S. industrial production has risen for two consecutive months and with tentative signs that supply-chain stress isn’t deteriorating any longer, the outlook is improving.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
December 10: -0.86
U.S. financial market conditions improved dramatically last week with the St.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
December 10: -88 bil cubic feet
Last week’s draw in natural gas stocks was only slightly greater than analysts had expected, suggesting that this report may put a small amount of upward pressure on prices.

United States
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Dec. 2021: 24
Manufacturing activity in the 10th District continues to expand, but the composite index stayed the same as last month.

Singapore
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2021:

Mexico
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2021: 5.50%
Mexico’s central bank was forced to increase the pace of monetary normalization in December as inflation continued to escalate.

Argentina
GDP
2021Q3: 11.9% y/y
Argentina's economy expanded 11.9% y/y in the third quarter, after 17.9% y/y in the previous quarter.