| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: I Think That Possibly, Maybe Initial Claims Fell Initial claims are riddled with issues making them less reliable. Final Thoughts Ahead of November U.S. Employment We look for a net gain of 325,000 in employment in November. LatAm Daily Briefing: Recession in the Rearview Early economic restarts in China and the U.S. began to revive demand for commodities and manufacturing inputs produced by the region. Europe Daily Briefing: Euro Zone Output Ails in November Retail sales in the currency bloc surged in yearly terms in October. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Thanksgiving, Rising Claims Signal Early Start to Dark Winter in U.S. Regional economies have begun to backtrack as lockdowns return, and holiday travel spells trouble. Bargaining Power, COVID-19, and the Essential Economy Pay gaps across demographic cohorts should remain at the forefront of policy discussions. Scandinavia Outlook: In the Slow Lane Until Trade Picks Up Risks to the fourth quarter come from trade. U.S. Risk Matrix Update: 2021 Will Be Better, but Risks Remain The absence of fiscal stimulus remains a problem, but there has been some encouraging news. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Euro Zone
Retail Sales
Oct. 2020: 1.5%
Euro zone retail sales rose by 1.5% m/m in October, after a downwardly revised 1.7% decline in September. Brazil
GDP
2020Q3: -3.9%
Brazil’s economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, as industries reopened after the shutdowns caused by COVID-19 in the previous quarter. United States
Challenger Report
Nov. 2020: 64,797
U.S.-based employers announced fewer than 65,000 job cuts in November, a decrease of 19.7% from the previous month but still 45.4% higher than year-ago levels. United States
Jobless Claims
November 28: 712,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance fell from a revised 787,000 (previously 778,000) to 712,000 in the week ended November 28. United States
Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index
Dec. 2020: 97.2
The Moody’s Analytics Beige Book Index dropped by 16.7% in December but remained 25% above its year-ago level. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
November 27: -0.65
The St. United States
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index
Nov. 2020: 55.9
The ISM nonmanufacturing survey’s composite index fell from 56.6 in October to 55.9 in November, close to our forecast of 55.8. United States
Risk of Recession
Oct. 2020:
United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
November 27: -1 bil cubic feet
The draw in natural gas inventories fell short of consensus expectations, a net negative for natural gas prices. Australia
Datium Insights - Moody’s Analytics Used Vehicle Price Index
Nov. 2020: 33.0%
Demand for wholesale used vehicles remains high in Australia. Australia
Retail Sales
Oct. 2020:
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