Economy.com Daily Update: December 7, 2021

Today's Economy

Despite expansion, the labor market still underperforms.

Private consumption drove the European economy in the third quarter.

Higher prices underpin strong growth in exports and imports over the month.

A second-consecutive quarterly slump may indicate a recession.

Commentary

Omicron has increased the likelihood that disruptions will persist.

The surge in COVID-19 infections across Europe is triggering a new rush to administer booster vaccines to more-vulnerable populations.

November's jobs number disappointed, though a more nuanced look is required.

The clock is once again ticking for Congress to avert a catastrophic default by the U.S. government.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
CoreLogic Home Price Index
Oct. 2021: 18% y/y
The CoreLogic Home Price Index increased 18% year over year in October, up slightly from the 17.95% pace before revisions in September and still near its quickest pace ever recorded going back several decades.

Switzerland
Unemployment rate
Nov. 2021: 2.5%
Swiss unemployment continued its downward trajectory in November, falling to 2.5% from 2.7% in October.

Denmark
Industrial Production
Oct. 2021: 2.1% m/m
Industrial production increased by 2.1% m/m in October after a downwardly revised 7.3% m/m decrease in September.

Taiwan (China)
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2021: 2.8% y/y
Taiwan’s headline Consumer Price Index accelerated to 2.8% over the year in November, in line with our expectations.

Taiwan (China)
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2021: US$5.7 bil
Taiwan's trade surplus narrowed to US$5.7 billion in November from US$6.1 billion in October.

Sweden
Industrial Production
Oct. 2021: 1.4% m/m
Sweden’s industrial production picked up by 1.4% m/m in October after no growth in September.

Norway
Industrial Production
Oct. 2021: -5.3% m/m
Norway’s industrial production tumbled 5.3% m/m in October, following September’s 3.3% jump.

Euro Zone
GDP
2021Q3: 2.2% q/q
Second estimates confirmed that the euro zone’s GDP increased by 2.2% q/q in the third quarter following an upwardly revised 2.2% gain in the first quarter.

Germany
Industrial Production
Oct. 2021: 2.8% m/m
Industrial production bounced back by 2.8% m/m in October as output increased sharply for Germany’s battered auto sector.

Chile
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2021: 6.7% y/y
Chile’s inflation climbed higher in November as prices continued to realign.

Chile
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2021: US$298.0 mil
Chile's trade accounts popped back into surplus as exports catapulted to a new high and surpassed still-surging imports.

Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Oct. 2021: C$ 2.09 bil
Canada’s trade surplus widened again in October.

United States
Productivity and Costs
2021Q3: -5.2%, q/q, SAAR
Third-quarter productivity growth in the U.S. was adjusted downward.

United States
International Trade (FT900)
Oct. 2021: -$67.1 bil
The U.S. nominal trade deficit narrowed noticeably in October, and this bodes well for fourth-quarter GDP.

United States
Moody's Analytics Used Vehicle Price Indexes
Nov. 2021: 53.5%
The price increase in used vehicles accelerated again during November.

Netherlands
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2021: 5.2% y/y
Consumer prices rose at their fastest rate since the 1980s in November.

Canada
Purchasing Managers' Index
Nov. 2021: 61.2
The Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index pushed higher in November, coming in at 61.2, up from October's 59.3 reading.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
December 03: 351.3 4-wk MA
The four-week moving average in our U.S.

United States
Consumer Credit (G19)
Oct. 2021: $16.9 bil
Consumer credit expanded by $16.9 billion in October.

Japan
GDP
2021Q3: