Economy.com Daily Update: February 24, 2022

Today's Economy

The central bank must act more decisively to curb runaway inflation.

The Fed will likely raise rates in March, but financial markets are doing some of its work.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine will have widespread inflation consequences.

The nation's post-pandemic economy is far from war-proof, despite a wealth of reserves.

Commentary

The share of sales has not risen much because of the pandemic.

Lessons from past cycles shed light on how and why price pressures can vary across the U.S.

Government fiscal support during the pandemic staved off devastating effects.

As Omicron crests worldwide, fewer disruptions lead the way to economic rebounds.

Today's Economic Indicators

Hong Kong SAR (China)
Foreign Trade
Jan. 2022: HK$6.6 bil
Hong Kong posted a HKD6.6 billion surplus in January, contrasting with the HKD32.8 billion trade deficit in December.

Sweden
Unemployment rate
Jan. 2022: 8.1%
Sweden’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate inched up to 8.1% in January from 8% a month earlier.

Norway
Unemployment rate
Dec. 2021: 3.3%
Norway's unemployment rate dropped to 3.3% from October to December 2021, pushing lower from the 3.5% three-month moving average ending November 2021.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Dec. 2021: 11.1%
Brazil's unemployment rate ended the year with another decline as the economy created more jobs.

Mexico
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Dec. 2021: 4.9% y/y
Mexico's retail sales ended the year on a positive note in annual terms.

Canada
Earnings, Hours and Employment
Dec. 2021: 1.7% y/y
Job growth in December edged higher by 0.7% in year-ago terms after a similarly muted gain of 0.2% in November, which followed a more robust gain of 2.7% in October.

United States
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Jan. 2022: 0.69
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index popped in January, indicating that growth in the U.S. economy accelerated at the start of the year.

United States
Jobless Claims
February 19: 232,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased in the week ended February 19.

United States
GDP
2021Q4: 7.0%, q/q, SAAR
U.S.

United States
New-Home Sales
Jan. 2022: 801,000 SAAR
U.S. new-home sales came in just below expectations in January, and December’s data were revised up.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
February 18: -0.69
The St.

World
Moody's Analytics Global HPI
2021Q4: 12.1% y/y
The Moody’s Analytics estimate of the global housing price index increased by 2.9% q/q in nominal terms during the fourth quarter of 2021.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
February 18: -129 bil cubic feet
Last week’s draw in natural gas stocks was not too far from analyst predictions, suggesting that this report will have a minimal impact on prices.

United States
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Feb. 2022: 29
Manufacturing activity in the Tenth District grew at a strong pace in February.

United States
Oil Inventories
February 18: 416.0 mil barrels
The unexpected increase in oil inventories last week would normally act as a weight on oil prices, but prices are unlikely to come down in the wake of this report given the conflict in Ukraine.

Argentina
Retail Sales Index
Dec. 2021: 116.7% y/y
The index that tracks nominal sales at Buenos Aires’ largest shopping centers increased 116.7% y/y in December after rising 157.5% in the previous month.