Economy.com Daily Update: February 26, 2021

Today's Economy

Containment of the virus spread will determine the economy's performance in the next few months.

February data could lower our tracking estimate of first quarter GDP.

GDP shrank quarter to quarter in France and Sweden for the last three months of 2020.

Herd immunity may be in sight.

Commentary

Unlike Germany and France, Italy saw notable improvements in its retail, consumer and services sentiment indexes.

Chile's economy gains steam; inflation remains below target in Peru and Colombia.

The Australian economy has continued to revive in the post-COVID-19 restrictions phase.

Demand for autos, semiconductors, electronic equipment and household durable goods remains strong and should continue to be.

Today's Economic Indicators

Singapore
Industrial Production
Jan. 2021: 8.6% y/y
Singapore’s industrial production grew by 8.6% y/y in January, extending the streak of expansions since November.

France
Household Consumption Survey
Jan. 2021: -4.6%
French household consumption of goods slumped in January, following a surge in December.

Sweden
GDP
2020Q4: -0.2%
Sweden’s real GDP contracted by 0.2% q/q in the fourth quarter, following a 6.4% expansion in the third.

Sweden
Retail Sales
Jan. 2021: 3.4%
Seasonally adjusted, Sweden’s retail sales, excluding fuel, increased by 3.4% m/m in January following a 4% decline in December.

France
GDP
2020Q4: -1.4% q/q
France’s GDP contracted by 1.4% q/q in the fourth quarter, after growing 18.7% in the third.

Portugal
GDP
2020Q4: 0.2%
Portugal’s GDP grew by 0.2% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2020.

India
GDP
2020Q4: 0.4% y/y
The COVID-19 pandemic continued to weigh on India’s real GDP in the third quarter of the Indian fiscal year, but the situation improved considerably. Real GDP grew 0.4% y/y, well above market expectations of a 6.3% contraction.

Mexico
Trade Balance
Jan. 2021: -US$1, 236 mil
Mexico’s trade balance started the year in negative territory as the value of imports remained above export revenues.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Dec. 2020: 13.9%
Brazil's unemployment rate adjusted down at the end of the year as the economy recovered.

Chile
Employment
Jan. 2021: 10.2%
The national unemployment rate averaged 10.2% in the November-January rolling quarter, down from a 2020 peak of 13.1% in May-July but sharply up from 7.4% a year earlier.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Jan. 2021: -4.4% y/y
National manufacturing in Chile reported an annual contraction in January, despite a monthly industrial advance.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Jan. 2021: 4.3% y/y
Retail sales in Chile declined for the second consecutive month in January as mobility restrictions were extended to almost half of the population.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Jan. 2021: 2.0%
Producer and raw materials prices opened 2021 with strong gains.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Jan. 2021: 1.3% m/m
Wholesale trade inventories jumped 1.3% in January.

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Jan. 2021: -$83.7 bil
The U.S. nominal goods deficit widened from a revised $83.2 billion in December (previously $82.5 billion) to $83.7 billion in January, suggesting that net exports will be a drag on GDP growth this quarter.

United States
Personal Income
Jan. 2021: 10.0% m/m
Disbursement of the most recent round of fiscal stimulus juiced personal income in January.

United States
PCE Deflator
Jan. 2021: 0.3% m/m
U.S. inflationary pressures will develop in the first half of the year but this is attributable to transitory factors, and the implications for monetary policy are minimal.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Jan. 2021: 2.0% m/m
Real consumer spending bounced back strongly in January on the back of a stimulus-generated surge in income.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
February 24: 78.1
The Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index dropped to 78.1 this week.

Netherlands
Retail Sales
Jan. 2021: -24.0%
Retail sales in the Netherlands fell 24% in January, leading year-over-year growth to fall 6%.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Feb. 2021: 76.8
U.S. consumer sentiment slipped an additional 2.2 points in February after dipping 1.7 points in January.

France
Job Seekers
Jan. 2021: 3.55 mil
The number of French job seekers fell by 33,100 in January to a total of 3.55 million.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Jan. 2021: -1.4%
The Agricultural Prices Received Index fell 1.4% in January because of a decrease in crop prices.