Today's Economy

Q4 U.S. GDP came in noticeably better than we anticipated.

U.S. GDP rose 2.6% in the fourth quarter, but the details aren't a great setup for Q1.

One-off factors haven't disappeared, however, so we expect volatility in coming months.

Increased tensions between India and Pakistan had markets spooked.

Commentary

There appears to have been little planning so far by the White House to address the limit.

The economy faces the deceleration typical of the first year of a new government administration.

The proposal offers a promising framework from which to begin.

Weakening auto credit quality is relatively modest and expected and doesn't indicate a broader problem.

Today's Economic Indicators

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Jan. 2019: US$0.1 bil
As expected, Thailand’s monthly trade surplus shrank significantly in January.

France
Household Consumption Survey
Jan. 2019: 1.2%
France's household goods consumption rose by an above-consensus 1.2% m/m in January, almost fully reversing the 1.5% decline in December.

France
GDP
2018Q4: 0.3%
Final numbers confirmed that France’s fourth-quarter GDP grew 0.3% q/q, the same rate as in the previous stanza, and 0.9% y/y, down from 1.3%.

India
GDP
2018Q4: 6.6%
India's GDP in the December quarter was a disappointment but hardly surprising given that the domestic economy cooled towards the end of 2018. Overall, GDP growth decelerated to 6.6% in the December quarter, down from 7% in the September quarter.

Brazil
GDP
2018Q4: 1.1%
Brazil’s economy decelerated at the end of last year as the outgoing administration ended its period.

Chile
Employment
Jan. 2019: 6.8%
The national unemployment rate averaged 6.8% in the November-January rolling quarter, up from 6.5% a year earlier.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Jan. 2019: 2.65%
Manufacturing advanced further at the start of the year and at more normal rates.

Canada
Balance of International Payments
2018Q4: -C$15.5 bil
A widening fourth-quarter current account deficit should dim expectations for GDP growth in the final months of 2018.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Jan. 2019: -0.3%
The industrial product price index fell in January for a third consecutive month.

United States
Jobless Claims
February 23: 225,000
The U.S. labor market remains in good spirits, although initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits point to some softening of late.

United States
GDP
2018Q4: 2.6%
U.S.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
February 22: -1.20
The St.

South Korea
Foreign Trade
Feb. 2019:

United States
Risk of Recession
Dec. 2018: 20%
The odds that the U.S. will be in recession in the next six months edged higher in December but remain low.

United States
Housing Vacancies & Homeownership
2018Q4: 64.8%
The homeownership rate continues to move up, coming in at 64.8% in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared with 64.4% in the third quarter.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
February 22: -166 bil cubic feet
The decline in U.S. natural gas inventories was slightly below analyst expectations, which will put some downward pressure on gas prices.

United States
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Feb. 2019: 1
Manufacturing activity in the Kansas City Federal Reserve District continues to expand but was dangerously close to reaching contraction territory in February.

Colombia
GDP
2018Q4: 2.8%
Colombia’s economy continued to advance at a steady pace in the fourth quarter of 2018, strengthening its recovery.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Jan. 2019: -4.5%
The agricultural prices received index started the year off on the wrong foot, falling 4.5% in January due to a sharp decline in the crop production index.

Japan
Employment Situation
Jan. 2019:

Japan
Machinery Orders
Jan. 2019: