| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Ups and Downs for U.S. GDP Fourth-quarter growth looks better, but the initial tracking estimate has Q1 only rising 1.5%. Q1 U.S. GDP Is Going to Be a Bumpy Ride Our tracking has begun with an initial estimate of growth at 1.5%. LatAm Daily Briefing: Argentina Accelerates Monetary Stimulus The policy rate now stands firmly below the annual inflation rate. Europe Daily Briefing: Coronavirus May Derail Euro Zone Recovery Global GDP would be hit hard, with Asia bearing the brunt but Europe also feeling the pain. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
The Many Points of Coronavirus Impact in China Reduction of income, even if temporary, makes the high debt load in the country more untenable. Coronavirus: The Global Economic Threat The U.S. will not be immune to the ill effects of this outbreak. U.S. Chartbook: Moderation in All Things GDP continues to clock in around its potential. U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview: February 3, 2020 We will begin tracking first-quarter GDP growth this week. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
United States
CoreLogic Home Price Index
Dec. 2019: 4%
The CoreLogic Home Price Index rose 4% year over year in December, accelerating from November’s 3.7% growth before revisions. United States
Vehicle Sales - AutoData
Jan. 2020: 17.0 mil, SAAR
U.S. vehicle sales started 2020 on a strong note by increasing to 17 million seasonally adjusted annualized units. Brazil
Industrial Production
Dec. 2019: -2.2%
Brazil's industry rang up a modest deficit at the end of the year after an unexpected fall in November. United States
ISM - NY Report
Jan. 2020: 45.8
New York City is slowing noticeably, according to the January ISM-New York Report on Business. United States
Factory Orders (M3)
Dec. 2019: 1.8%
U.S. manufacturing continued to struggle in December, but some of the survey-based data suggest the potential for a modest improvement early this year. United States
Risk of Recession
Dec. 2019: 14%
The odds that the U.S. will be in recession in the next six months increased from 10% in November to 14% in January. United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
January 31: 131.4
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index slipped from 132.2 to 131.4 in the week ended January 31. » VIEW MORE ECONOMIC INDICATORS | 
