Daily Update: February 7, 2019

3 months ago

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Thursday, February 07, 2019

Today's Economy

Something Fishy in U.S. Employment

Lower response rates will lead to larger revisions.

Europe Daily Briefing: Brexit Worry Keeps BoE on Hold

The bank won’t dare kick the economy when it is down.

Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: India's Monetary Policy Has Been Compromised

The RBI cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, the first cut since August 2017.

Economic Roundup: Still Streaking

String of solid U.S. economic data continues as the trade deficit narrows in November.



The Outlook After Trump's State of the Union

The U.S. president called for bipartisanship but doubled down on the wall.

U.S. Chartbook: Plenty of Life to This Expansion

We don't believe a recession is imminent.

2019 Middle East Outlook: Reforms Pay Off for Oil Importers

A trade war and missteps in global monetary tightening pose downside risks.

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, February 4, 2019

The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release its productivity report for the fourth quarter.


Today's Economic Indicators

Monetary Policy
Feb. 2019: 6.25%
The Reserve Bank of India surprised markets with a 25-basis point rate cut in February, bringing the repo rate to 6.25%.

Industrial Production
Dec. 2018: -1.4%
Industrial production plunged by 1.4% in month-ago terms in December, posting the third sharpest decline in 2018. All sectors declined over the month, but the main drag was the energy sector, which dropped 3.4% m/m.

Retail Sales
Dec. 2018: -0.7%
Italy's retail sales retreated in December, falling 0.7% m/m, following a 0.6% gain in November.

Industrial Production
Dec. 2018: -0.4%
German industrial production retreated further in December, after contracting in the previous three months.

United Kingdom
Monetary Policy and Minutes
Feb. 2019: 0.75%
As expected, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% in February.

Foreign Trade
Jan. 2019: US$1,031.2 mil
Chile’s trade surplus expanded in January.

United States
Jobless Claims
February 02: 234,000
The U.S. labor market remains in fine shape despite the recent noise in jobless claims.

Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2019: 4.37%
Mexico’s inflation declined further at the beginning of the year as price increases moderated.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
February 01: -0.99
The St.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
February 01: -249 bil cubic feet
The decline in natural gas inventories was smaller than analyst expectations, which will put some downward pressure on gas prices.

Foreign Trade
Jan. 2019:

Monetary Policy
Feb. 2019: 8.25%

United States
Consumer Credit (G19)
Dec. 2018: $16.5 bil
Headline consumer credit growth was strong again in December.



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