| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Quiet Day on Eve of U.S. CPI There were some central bank developments, but the focus is now on the U.S. CPI. Capital Market View: January CPI Could Make Fed More Aggressive We forecast the CPI to have risen 0.4% in January, leaving it up 7.3% on a year-ago basis. LatAm Daily Briefing: Uruguay’s Employment Recovery A surging labor trend gives the nation a leg up on its LatAm neighbors. Europe Daily Briefing: Italian Industry Contracts at Year’s End Italian industry contracted 1% m/m in December, but production remains above pre-pandemic levels. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Global Vaccine Tracker: Outlook for International Travel The most likely situation is that international arrivals endure a sluggish and bumpy recovery over 2022 and 2023. Will the European Central Bank Blink? Higher-than-expected inflation in January could prompt the ECB to hike rates earlier than planned. Japan Risk Matrix Update: Virus Strategy at a Crossroads A worsening of the COVID-19 situation remains the key risk to the outlook. Indonesia Monetary Policy: A Balancing Act There's a strong case for the central bank to tighten rates next quarter. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Canada
RPS House Price Index
Jan. 2022: 13.5% y/y
Thailand
Monetary Policy
Feb. 2022: 0.5%
The Bank of Thailand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in its first meeting of 2022, as concerns about the Omicron variant are subsiding. Italy
Industrial Production
Dec. 2021: -1.0% m/m
Italy’s industrial production contracted by 1% m/m in December, offsetting November’s increase, as all the main sectors except energy contracted in monthly terms. Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2022: 10.38% y/y
Brazil’s annual inflation started the year with a mild rebound, staying at a double-digit rate. Portugal
Unemployment rate
2021Q4: 6.3%
Portugal’s headline unemployment rate rose to 6.3% in the fourth quarter, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous period. Brazil
Retail Sales Index
Dec. 2021: -3.0% y/y
The annual contraction of retail sales continued to moderate in December as consumption seemed to be gaining some steam. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
February 04: -8.1%
Mortgage application volume slumped in the week ended February 4. Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2022: 7.07% y/y
Annual inflation in Mexico further declined to start the year as some non-core prices moderated. United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
February 06: 2.63%
Inflation expectations remained little changed in the week ended February 6, according to the Moody’s Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse. United States
Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
Dec. 2021: 2.2% m/m
Wholesale inventories climbed 2.2% in the final month of 2021, a touch higher than consensus expectations of a 2.1% increase. United States
Oil Inventories
February 04: 410.4 mil barrels
An unexpected drop in crude stocks will support high oil prices. Russian Federation
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2022: 8.7% y/y
Russia's annual inflation rate climbed higher in January, accelerating to 8.7% y/y after staying at 8.4% for two months. Russian Federation
Retail Sales
Dec. 2021: 5.4% y/y
Seasonally adjusted Russian retail sales soared by 20.9% m/m in December, boosted by the Christmas shopping season, reversing the 2.7% decrease in November. Russian Federation
Unemployment
Dec. 2021: 4.3%
Russia's unemployment rate remains at a historic low. United States
Semiconductor Billings
Dec. 2021:
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