| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Powell Tests Our Fed-Call Confidence The Fed could keep rates unchanged for longer than we anticipate. Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: China's Exports Surge Again The trade surplus is likely to weaken later in the year as demand for pandemic-related products softens and countries restore production capacity. Europe Daily Briefing: Germany Survives 2020 Preliminary estimates show German GDP contracted less than expected in 2020. LatAm Daily Briefing: Inflation and Monetary Risk Most central banks are not in a hurry to begin normalize interest rates. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Italy’s New Crisis Our policy assumptions for 2021 wouldn’t change drastically even under a new government. U.S. COVID-19 Footprint Shifts Again The Southwest is the latest epicenter, but the slow vaccine rollout is a concern everywhere. New Fiscal Policy Assumptions Lead to Big Changes in January U.S. Baseline Our forecast of 5% GDP growth this year and next is even more above the consensus. Monetary Policy Tracker: The Inflation Bind Brazil, Chile and Mexico's central banks ended 2020 in expansionary territory after significant interest rate cuts. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
OECD
Composite Leading Indicators
Dec. 2020: 99.4
The December reading for the OECD composite leading indicator came in at 99.4 in amplitude-adjusted terms, compared with 99.3 in November. United States
Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index
Jan. 2021: 77.8
The Moody’s Analytics Beige Book Index fell by 20% in January, marking the series’ second straight double-digit percent decrease. United States
Jobless Claims
January 09: 965,000
The recovery in the U.S. labor market has taken a step back, but reading the tea leaves from initial claims is difficult now because of seasonal adjustment issues around the holidays and potential filing problems caused by a temporary lapse in expanded benefits. United States
Import and Export Prices
Dec. 2020: 0.9%
U.S. import prices rose 0.9% in December, in line with our forecast for a 1% gain. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
January 08: -0.69
The St. World
Moody's Analytics Global CPI
Dec. 2020: 0.6%
Our estimate of the global CPI inflation rate was 3% y/y in December, the same as in November. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
January 08: -134 bil cubic feet
The draw in natural gas inventories was slightly greater than analyst predictions, indicating that this report will help support prices somewhat. Argentina
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2020: 36.1%
The statistics office’s national consumer price index increased 4% in December, up from 3.7% a year earlier. South Korea
Monetary Policy
Jan. 2021:
Japan
Retail Sales
Nov. 2020:
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