| Today's Economy
With Theresa May’s Plan Killed Off, What's Next? All cards remain on the table, but the chances of a softer Brexit or of no Brexit have increased. Fed Rate Contrast: 96% of Surveyed Economists See 2019 Rate Hike; Futures Assign Odds at Just 23% The Fed's release of bonds may make additional rate hikes unnecessary. The Economy.com Podcast: The Year Ahead Chief Economist Mark Zandi sits down to discuss the risks and opportunities of 2019. Europe Daily Briefing: Awaiting the Brexit Vote Volatility will remain the word of the day. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Chartbook: Breaking the Wrong Record The federal government shutdown, now the longest in history, will be a drag on an otherwise strong first quarter. U.S. Macro Outlook: A Wobbly Start It won’t take much more to push on-edge investors and businesses over the brink. For U.S. Regions, Shutdown Creates Losers—and Bigger Losers The partial shutdown is creating economic headaches across the nation. U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 11, 2019 We anticipate that the first two regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January will have dropped. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2018Q3: 2.0%
Concerns about slowing global growth have weighed on financial markets, and these worries are not misplaced. India
Foreign Trade
Dec. 2018: -US$13.1 bil
France
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2018: 1.9%
France's national consumer prices were down for the second consecutive month, hitting 1.6% y/y from 1.9% previously because of a year-on-year fall in energy prices. Brazil
Retail Sales Index
Nov. 2018: 4.4%
Brazil’s retail consumption advanced in November after the election concluded with a positive result for markets. Spain
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2018: 1.2%
Spanish inflation decelerated to 1.2% in December from 1.7% previously due to a sharp drop in fuel prices and a smaller drop in services. Euro Zone
External Trade
Nov. 2018: €19.0 bil
The euro zone’s external trade surplus narrowed to €19 billion in November from €23.4 billion a year earlier. Peru
Unemployment
Dec. 2018: 6.1%
The job market in the Lima metropolitan area is improving steadily. United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Jan. 2019: 3.9
Two months makes a trend for the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. United States
Producer Price Index
Dec. 2018: -0.2%
The impact of past declines in global oil prices is increasingly visible in the U.S. inflation data. United States
Tech Pulse
Dec. 2018:
United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
January 11: 104.0
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index fell from a revised 105.7 to 104 in the week ended January 11. China
Monetary Aggregates
Dec. 2018:
United States
CreditForecast.com Household Credit Report
Dec. 2018: 3.94%
Household credit lending increased by 0.1%, or $13 billion, in December. Argentina
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2018: 47.6%
The statistics office’s national consumer price index increased 2.6% in December, down from 3.2% in the previous month and 3.1% a year earlier. Japan
Machinery Orders
Nov. 2018:
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