Economy.com Daily Update: January 16, 2019

Today's Economy

U.K. prime minister survives no-confidence vote but needs to cobble together a deal.

Headline CPI inflation looks set to head lower, allowing the BoE to stand pat until spring.

Retail sales, business inventories, and Treasury International Capital Flows will be delayed.

The sobering result in November will filter through to GDP by mid-2019.

Commentary

With no end in sight, federal agencies are recalling more and more workers.

Downside risks are significant, but regional economies keep humming along.

The federal government shutdown, now the longest in history, will be a drag on an otherwise strong first quarter.

It won’t take much more to push on-edge investors and businesses over the brink.

Today's Economic Indicators

Germany
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2018: 1.8%
Germany's annual national measure of inflation decelerated further in December to 1.8% y/y, from 2.3% in November, due to a softer increase in the prices of food and energy.

United Kingdom
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2018: 2.1%
The U.K.’s consumer price inflation dipped to 2.1% in December from 2.3% in November, in line with our expectations.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2018: 1.2%
Italy’s annual harmonized EU inflation decelerated in December, rising 1.2 y/y, down from a 1.6% gain in the previous month.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
January 11: 13.5%
The mortgage market began the second week of January with another big jump. Despite this, the four-week moving average for purchase applications for the week ending January 11 fell by 0.3% due to the base effects of the previous three weeks, while the four-week average for refinancing applications jumped 12%.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Nov. 2018: -7.8%
New-vehicle sales fell for the third consecutive month in November, down to 149,239.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Dec. 2018: -1.0%
Energy prices have left a mark on producer, consumer and now import prices, which fell 1% in December, a little less than our and consensus expectations.

United States
Tech Pulse
Dec. 2018:

United States
NAHB Housing Market Index
Jan. 2019: 58
Homebuilder sentiment edged up 2 points to 58 in January.

United States
Oil Inventories
January 11: 437.1 mil barrels
Oil inventories declined by much more than analysts were expecting, which will put upward pressure on oil prices.

Singapore
Foreign Trade
Dec. 2018:

United States
Beige Book
Jan. 2019:
The Federal Reserve’s January Beige Book, which covers economic activity through early January, indicates that economic activity increased throughout most of the country.