| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Keep Counting on Claims Initial claims remain low, suggesting the economy is weathering the shutdown. U.S. Initial Claims Suggest Limited Spillover From Shutdown, for Now The regular tally of filings doesn't include those by federal workers. Moody's Analytics: 2019 U.S. Macro Outlook—From Virtuous to Vicious Cycle The next recession is coming into view but probably will not arrive in the coming year as many seem to fear. Europe Daily Briefing: Some Lull Before Another Brexit Storm Lower oil prices are weighing on euro zone inflation. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Germany Outlook: Rough Waters Ahead Prospects for this year are uncertain following the sharp slowdown in 2018. U.S. Employment Outlook: An Expansion for the Ages? Job gains have been remarkably steady, but their pace hasn't touched rates from the 1980s and 1990s. Forecaster's Mailbag: U.S. Partial Government Shutdown With no end in sight, federal agencies are recalling more and more workers. U.S. Regional Outlook: Amid Challenges, Another Solid Year Downside risks are significant, but regional economies keep humming along. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Euro Zone
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2018: 1.6%
Final numbers confirmed that euro zone inflation slowed to 1.6% in December, its lowest reading since April, from 1.9% in November. United States
Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index
Jan. 2019: 127.8
The Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index reported a rating of 128 for January’s edition of the Federal Reserve report. United States
Jobless Claims
January 12: 213,000
The U.S. labor market is in top shape. United States
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Jan. 2019: 17.0
Manufacturer sentiment is modestly positive in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District, and it picked up from last month. Canada
ADP Canada National Employment Report
Dec. 2018: -13,049
Canadian employment took a hit in December. United States
Tech Pulse
Dec. 2018:
United States
Median usual weekly earnings
2018Q4: 5.0%
The tightening in the labor market is putting additional upward pressure on wage growth, but the growth in median usual weekly earnings during the fourth quarter is a little misleading and doesn’t suggest the labor market is overheating or that there is a risk of a sudden increase in inflation. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
January 11: -0.84
Financial stress decreased in the week ended January 11, the second straight weekly decline. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
January 11: -81 bil cubic feet
The decline in natural gas inventories was slightly greater than analyst expectations, which will put some upward pressure on gas prices. Japan
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2018:
Japan
Industrial Production
Nov. 2018:
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