Economy.com Daily Update: July 15, 2024

Today's Economy

We’ve expanded CRE price forecasting in our U.S. Macroeconomic Model.

Resurging inflation is making the region’s central banks nervous.

Euro zone industrial output pulled back after stalling in the previous month.

The domestic economy will require considerable support to rebound.

Commentary

Trend growth in delinquent balances, measured by the three-month average, continued its deceleration.

Falling consumer prices in June give more confidence to the Federal Reserve as it considers a September interest rate cut.

The U.S. macro forecast will include new measures of CRE prices.

Colombia’s inflation rate stands pat while Chile’s stays above target.

Today's Economic Indicators

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2024: US$2.4 bil
Indonesia’s trade surplus fell to $2.4 billion in June from $2.9 billion in May, nearing our forecast of $2.5 billion while slightly below consensus expectations of $2.9 billion.

Finland
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2024: 1.3% y/y
Finland’s consumer price inflation rate decelerated to 1.3% year over year in June from 1.5% in May.

Euro Zone
Industrial Production
May. 2024: -0.6% m/m
The euro zone’s industrial production slumped 0.6% month over month in May, falling again after zero change in April.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Jul. 2024: -6.6
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey continues to convey modest declines for New York's factories, but most of last month's relatively positive developments were sustained.

Canada
Survey of Manufacturing
May. 2024: 0.4% m/m
After a 1.4% increase in April, manufacturing sales pushed higher by a more modest 0.4% in May, reaching C$71.4 billion.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
May. 2024: 7.5% y/y
New-vehicle sales increased for the fourth consecutive month in May, climbing 5%.

Canada
Wholesale Trade
May. 2024: -1.4% m/m
Wholesale trade fell in May by 1.4%, or -0.8% excluding petroleum and other hydrocarbons, oilseed and grain, following an uptick in April.

India
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2024: -US$21 bil
India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed in June to $21 billion from $23.8 billion in May.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2024Q1: 3.0% q/q SAAR
Global GDP growth accelerated through the first quarter, according to the second estimate from Moody’s Analytics.

World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
July 12: 23.0
Global business sentiment has become more upbeat and is about as strong as it was when the economy was recovering from the pandemic shutdowns.

United States
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
Jun. 2024: 37.2 weeks, NSA
New-vehicle affordability declined at a modest clip in June.

Colombia
Industrial Production
May. 2024: -3.6% y/y
Manufacturing output slumped in May amid weak domestic demand conditions.

Peru
Unemployment
Jun. 2024: 6.6%
The Peruvian economy is back on its feet but not roaring, and the June jobs report provided both a snapshot of progress and a reminder of how much ground there still is to recover.