| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Fed Should Underpromise, Overdeliver Market expectations for a 50-basis point cut this month have jumped but Fed may not deliver. Europe Daily Briefing: U.K. Retailers Defied Gravity in June British consumers should spend freely over 2019 thanks to strong wage growth and low unemployment. U.S. Consumers May Not Know They Won Tax payments for 2018 were down, but filing season pain may have left consumers with a bad taste. Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: Another Two Bite the Dust South Korea and Indonesia joined the handful of central banks to ease policy in recent weeks. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
What Could Trigger a U.S. Recession in 2020 A recession isn't our baseline, but there are some nontraditional threats. Latin America Economic Preview: 22-26 July Argentina's economic activity likely continued to contract, while Mexico's remained weak. A Year of U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Protectionism has brought little if any economic benefit. U.S. Employment Outlook: Reading Signals Through the Noise The labor market roller coaster has been in full effect so far this year. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Indonesia
Monetary Policy
Jul. 2019: 5.75%
Bank Indonesia reduced the 7-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% at its July policy meeting, marking the first reduction in almost two years. United Kingdom
Retail Sales
Jun. 2019: 3.8%
U.K. retail sales beat expectations and rose by 3.8% y/y in June, accelerating from a 2.2% gain in May. United States
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Jul. 2019: 21.8
The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing business outlook index improved markedly in July. Canada
ADP Canada National Employment Report
Jun. 2019: 30400
Canada's labor market continues to impress. United States
Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index
Jul. 2019: 94.4
The Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index reported a rating of 94 for the July edition of the Federal Reserve report. United States
Jobless Claims
July 13: 216,000
There are still no warning signs in U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
July 12: -1.36
Financial market stress ticked slightly higher, but remains near its lowest level since early-2018. United States
Conference Board Leading Indicators
Jun. 2019: -0.3%
The outlook for the U.S. economy is weaker than it has been in months. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
July 12: 62 bil cubic feet
The increase in natural gas inventories was less than analysts expected, which will apply upward pressure on prices. Chile
Monetary Policy
Jul. 2019:
Japan
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2019:
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