| Today's Economy
Even June's Lower Ratio of High-Yield Downgrades per Upgrades Warns of a Higher Default Rate When corporate bond yield spreads swell despite a positive trend and outlook for corporate earnings, yield spreads are likely to narrow dramatically. Draghi Likely to Pass the Dovish Torch to Lagarde She could be taking over shortly after the ECB eases monetary policy. A Chunk of the Yield Curve Is Inverted, but Not All of It One model implies a 40% probability of recession within 12 months, but interesting dynamics are at work. Europe Daily Briefing: U.K. Construction Is Free-Falling The sector could rebound if Brexit uncertainty fades, but until then hiring may be in the dumps. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Tariffs Tracker: Haven't We Done This Already? Another truce with China, another handshake agreement. Why Chile's Central Bankers Reversed Course Monetary policymaking based on nonobservable variables could become inconsistent with time. U.S. Chartbook: Consumers and Businesses Point in Different Directions Low inflation, though a concern at the Fed, is not the main reason the central bank may cut rates. Cost of the Central American Migrant Crisis Economic, demographic and social pressures will keep flows elevated. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
United States
CoreLogic Home Price Index
May. 2019: 3.6%
The CoreLogic Home Price Index increased 3.6% year over year in May, hovering near its most subdued rate since the start of the housing recovery a little over seven years ago. Germany
Retail Sales
May. 2019: -0.6%
German retail sales decreased for the second month in a row in May, down by 0.6% following an upwardly revised decline of 1% in April. Brazil
Industrial Production
May. 2019: 8.3%
Brazil's national industry reported a strong recovery in May after steadily contracting throughout the year. United States
ISM - NY Report
Jun. 2019: 50
New York City’s economy looks increasingly vulnerable based on the most recent ISM-New York Report on Business. United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
June 28: 130.9
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index increased from 130.6 to 130.9 in the week ended June 28. United States
Vehicle Sales - AutoData
Jun. 2019: 17.2 mil, SAAR
Australia
Foreign Trade
May. 2019:
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