| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: One Small Step for the Fed The central bank sees diminishing downside risks, suggesting rates will likely rise this year. Oil Majors Face Additional Risks Declining profit margins for refineries threaten profits U.S. Durable Goods Fan Our Concerns About Capital Spending An unfavorable gap remains between core capital goods orders and shipments. Summer Lull in U.S. retail sales Stores look to the back-to-school season for relief.
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Commentary
New Zealand Outlook: The Gloss Is Wearing Off Resilient domestic demand faces rising risks, while unfavourable external conditions persist.
Commodity Outlook: A Pause in the Oil Price Rally Supply and demand fundamentals are no longer rapidly improving. Chile Outlook: Weakness Remains The economy’s future depends on capital accumulation. U.S. Chartbook: Housing Adds to Confidence Despite global unease, U.S. firms have reason to be confident about the domestic economy. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
France
Consumer Confidence
Jul. 2016: 96
France’s consumer confidence decreased slightly to 96 in July from 97 in the previous month. France
Producer Price Index
Jun. 2016: -3.1%
France's producer prices decreased 3.1% y/y in June, following a 3.3% drop in the previous month. Spain
Retail Sales
Jun. 2016: 6.0%
Spain's retail trade, not seasonally adjusted, expanded by 6% y/y in June, up from a 2.7% rise in May. Euro Zone
Monetary Aggregates
Jun. 2016: 5%
The seasonally adjusted annual growth of the euro zone’s M3 money supply was 5% y/y in June, after a 4.9% increase in the previous month. Italy
Consumer and Business Confidence
Jul. 2016: 103.3
Italy’s business confidence rose to 103.3 in July from 101.2 in the previous month because of stronger confidence in manufacturing, construction, services and retail trade. United Kingdom
GDP Production Breakdown
2016Q2: 2.2%
Economic growth in the U.K. ticked up in the second quarter of 2016, with real GDP growing 0.6% q/q compared with the 0.4% increase in the three months to March. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
July 22: -11.2%
Mortgage applications fell last week, the result of a rise in interest rates. United States
Bankruptcy Filings
2016Q2: -6.8%
Personal bankruptcy filings continue to decline as household finances remain strong. United States
Durable Goods (Advance)
Jun. 2016: -4.0%
New orders for durable manufactured goods posted the largest monthly drop for the year in June, falling 4%. Mexico
Employment Situation
Jun. 2016: 3.93% Unemployment
Unemployment declined marginally in June as the economy advanced. United States
Business Employment Dynamics
2015Q4: 7.8 mil
Business Employment Dynamics data confirm the buoyancy of the U.S. labor market at the end of 2015 driven by robust new job creation. United States
Pending Home Sales
Jun. 2016: 111.0
The pending home sales index inched up 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis to 111 in June, recovering a piece of May’s decline but still falling well short of April’s post-recession high. United States
Risk of Recession
Jun. 2016: 17%
The probability that the U.S. economy will fall into recession in six months remains low. United States
Oil Inventories
July 22: 521.1 mil barrels
An unexpected increase in crude oil inventories will add significant downward pressure on prices. United States
FOMC Monetary Policy
Jul. 2016: 0.25 - 0.50 %
As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee didn’t make any changes to either its interest rate or balance sheet policies, but a tweak to the statement hints that a rate hike in September is on the table. Singapore
Employment
2016Q2:
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