| Today's Economy
Final Thoughts Ahead of Q2 U.S. GDP We look for GDP to have slipped 0.4% at an annualized rate. LatAm Daily Briefing: Has LatAm Inflation Peaked? Inflation topped out in the second quarter, but a possible global recession poses a new threat. Capital Market View: Tumbleweeds Not a lot going on in the U.S. high-yield corporate bond market. ECB to Get Some Better News on Inflation The relief driven by a drop in energy prices will be temporary, but the preliminary HICP release Friday will likely show a decline. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Exploring the Global Recession Scenario The drivers of a possible downturn are more conventional this time around. U.S. Credit Outlook: Borrowers Hang In There Balance growth is already at its peak; the largest slowdowns will come in the demand for mortgages and autos. Political Turmoil Raises Risks for Italian Economy A rise in government bond spreads could tip the economy into recession. U.S. Risk Matrix: Watching for Policy Error Inflation could remain higher for longer, since traditional monetary policy tightening is not equipped to address the supply shocks. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Thailand
Industrial Production
Jun. 2022: -0.1%
Thailand's factories are experiencing fresh supply-side interruptions, as reflected in June's 0.1% y/y drop in industrial production. France
Job Seekers
Jun. 2022: 2.95 mil
The number of job seekers in France inched up in June to 2.95 million from 2.93 million in May. Mexico
Trade Balance
Jun. 2022: -US$ 3.957 bil
Mexico's trade account remained in negative territory in June as exports growth moderated. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
July 22: -1.8%
Mortgage application volume dipped 1.8% in the week ended July 22, marking four consecutive weeks of declines and bringing the composite index to its lowest reading since 2000. United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Jun. 2022: 1.9% m/m
Wholesale and retail inventories continue to build steadily. United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Jun. 2022: -$98.2 bil
Trade was less of an issue for second-quarter GDP. United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
July 24: 2.71%
Inflation expectations in the U.S. continue to temper. United States
Durable Goods (Advance)
Jun. 2022: 1.9% m/m
There was a surprise increase in U.S. durable goods orders in June. United States
Business Employment Dynamics
2021Q4: 9.6 mil
The labor market remained quite strong in the fourth quarter as the economy continued to recover from the impact of the pandemic. United States
Pending Home Sales
Jun. 2022: 91.0
The NAR pending home sales index declined 8.6% to 91 in June, reinforcing the downward trend begun back in fall 2021 and dropping to its lowest level since the onset of the pandemic. United States
Oil Inventories
July 22: 422.1 mil barrels
A larger than expected decline in crude oil stocks should put some upward pressure on oil prices. Russian Federation
Industrial Production
Jun. 2022: -1.8% y/y
Russia's industrial production decreased by 1.8% y/y in June, slightly worsening the 1.7% loss in May, as a result of a contraction in all main industries except for resource extraction. Russian Federation
Retail Sales
Jun. 2022: -9.6% y/y
Seasonally adjusted Russian retail sales recovered by 1.1% m/m in June, outpacing the modest 0.5% growth previously. Russian Federation
Unemployment
Jun. 2022: 3.9%
Russia's not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at a mere 3.9% in June. United States
FOMC Monetary Policy
Jul. 2022: 2.25% to 2.5%
The Federal Reserve continues to quickly remove monetary policy accommodation as it attempts to tame inflation. Australia
Retail Sales
Jun. 2022:
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