Economy.com Daily Update: July 28, 2021

Today's Economy

The Fed is taking actions to make sure the tapering doesn't catch anyone off guard.

Last summer's La Niña has reduced the amount of precipitation across South America in 2021.

The Fed's statement was interpreted differently by the bond market.

We now look for a 7.6% annualized gain, but watch the annual revisions.

Commentary

But the Continent still faces some vaccine hesitancy.

There were bits of good news for future residential construction in last week’s housing data.

Why the shortage won't be equal across industries and sectors.

Asia’s slow rate of vaccination is a thorn in the region’s economic recovery.

Today's Economic Indicators

Malaysia
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2021: MYR22.2 bil
Malaysia's June export performance beat expectations with a MYR22.2 billion trade surplus, up from May's MYR13.7 billion surplus.

Norway
Retail Sales
Jun. 2021: -0.3% m/m
Norway’s retail sales excluding autos and fuel sales slid by 0.3% m/m in June after jumping by 6.2% in May.

Sweden
Retail Sales
Jun. 2021: -0.3% m/m
Retail sales in Sweden decreased by 0.3% m/m in June, following May’s 2.4% increase.

Ireland
Retail Sales
Jun. 2021: 10.1% m/m

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
July 23: 5.7%
Mortgage applications rose 5.7% in the week ended July 23, reversing the preceding week’s 4% decline.

Canada
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2021: 3.1% y/y
As base effects ease, CPI inflation is starting to decelerate.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Jun. 2021: 0.8% m/m
Wholesale-trade inventories climbed 0.8% in June following an upwardly revised 1.3% increase in May (previously 1.1%).

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Jun. 2021: -$91.2 bil
The U.S. nominal-goods deficit widened in June, and net exports will be a drag on second-quarter GDP.

United States
Business Employment Dynamics
2020Q4: 8.8 mil
During the fourth quarter of 2020, gross job gains totaled 8.8 million, down considerably from the previous quarter of 10.8 million but still above the pre-pandemic average.

United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
July 25: 2.39%
Without any major new data released last week, the Moody’s Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse held steady near 2.4%.

United States
Oil Inventories
July 23: 435.6 mil barrels
A larger-than-predicted decline in crude oil stocks will help support prices.

Russian Federation
Retail Sales
Jun. 2021: 10.9% y/y
Russian seasonal retail sales picked up by 0.6% m/m in June, adding to the 1.1% increase in May.

Russian Federation
Unemployment
Jun. 2021:

United States
FOMC Monetary Policy
Jul. 2021: 0% to 0.25%
The post-meeting statement from the Federal Open Market Committee strengthens our view that the central bank will provide some additional clarity about its tapering plans in September but it won’t start until early next year.

Japan
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2021: