| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: New Data Boost Outlook Our high-frequency GDP model now has Q2 GDP on track to increase 10.5% at an annualized rate. LatAm Daily Briefing: How High Inflation? Policymakers might need to start policy normalization sooner than anticipated. Capital Markets View: Treasury Tapping Account at Fed Is Weighing on Treasury Yields The TGA has dropped by $150 billion over the past 10 days. Flurry of Data Boosts Q2 U.S. GDP Quarterly growth is tracking 10.5% at an annualized rate. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Global Vaccine Tracker: G-7 Leaders Step Up The economic benefits of a globally inoculated population are enormous. Africa Outlook: A Challenging Road Ahead A slow vaccine rollout will cause problems for the continent's recovery. FHFA’s Confused Critique of Fannie and Freddie’s Transfer of Credit Risk We walk through how credit risk transfer has become central to the housing finance system. U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 14, 2021 Retail sales likely fell in May, while housing starts and industrial production post rose. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Indonesia
Foreign Trade
May. 2021: US$2.37 bil
Indonesia's trade surplus widened to $2.37 billion in May, the largest in six months. Germany
Consumer Price Index
May. 2021: 2.5%
Germany's consumer price index increased by 0.5% m/m in May 2021, bringing the headline CPI up 2.5% from year-ago levels. Finland
Retail Sales
Apr. 2021: 2.9%
Finland's seasonally adjusted retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, increased by 2.9% m/m in April after the upwardly revised 0.6% gain in March. Belgium
Consumer Price Index
May. 2021: 1.5%
Consumer price growth in Belgium crept higher in May, rising to 1.5% y/y from 1.2% y/y in April. France
Consumer Price Index
May. 2021: 1.4%
French inflation accelerated to 1.4% y/y in May, after increasing by 1.2% in April. United Kingdom
Unemployment
Apr. 2021: 4.7%
The measured recovery in the U.K. labour market continued in April, with unemployment falling to 4.7% from 5% in the previous stanza. Euro Zone
External Trade
Apr. 2021: €10.9 bil
The euro zone’s not seasonally adjusted trade surplus of goods came in at €10.9 billion in April 2021 compared with €2.3 billion in April 2020. Italy
Consumer Price Index
May. 2021: 1.3%
Italy's headline CPI gained 1.3% y/y in May, building on April’s 1.1% increase, due to the rise in energy prices. Belgium
Industrial Production
Apr. 2021: 28.8%
Belgium's industrial production index advanced by a whopping 28.8% in April on a year-ago basis. Canada
Housing Starts
May. 2021: 276 ths
The booming pace of new residential construction shows no signs of abating. United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Jun. 2021: 17.4
Factory sentiment in New York is positive, but slightly less sanguine than it was last month, according to the June Empire State Manufacturing Survey. United States
Producer Price Index
May. 2021: 0.8% m/m
With the economy reopening and supply chain disruptions, U.S. production costs are rising. United States
Retail Sales
May. 2021: -1.3%, m/m
Retail sales dropped in May, although nearly half the decline was accounted for by auto dealers. India
Foreign Trade
May. 2021: -US$6.3 bil
India’s trade deficit shrank to $6.28 billion in May from $15.1 billion in April, double the figure from a year ago due to favorable base effects. United States
Industrial Production
May. 2021: 0.8% m/m
U.S. industrial production increased 0.8% in May, a touch lighter than our forecast for a 0.9% gain. United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Apr. 2021: -0.2% m/m
Business inventories decreased in April. United States
NAHB Housing Market Index
Jun. 2021: 81
Homebuilder confidence inched down 2 points to 81 in June. World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2021Q1: 3.2%
United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
June 11: 339.0
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index fell from 339.8 to 339 in the week ended June 11. Peru
Unemployment
May. 2021: 12.0%
The job market in the Lima metropolitan area, a bellwether of labor market conditions in Peru, performed better than expected in the March to May rolling quarter, suggesting that recent mobility restrictions did less to hold back hiring than we expected. United States
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
May. 2021: 35.5 weeks, NSA
New-vehicle affordability declined in May. Colombia
Industrial Production
Apr. 2021: 63.7% y/y
Manufacturing output jumped 63.7% y/y in April, mostly thanks to a very low comparison base. United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Apr. 2021: $100.7 bil
Net long-term capital flows were positive for the 12th straight month in April. Japan
Machinery Orders
Apr. 2021:
Japan
Foreign Trade
May. 2021:
China
Fixed Asset Investment
May. 2021:
China
Industrial Production
May. 2021:
China
Retail Sales
May. 2021:
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