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Real-time coverage of the global economy, including in-depth analysis of more than 300 economic indicators, topics and long-term trends, plus macro forecasts and outlooks.

Thursday, June 16, 2022

Today's Economy


U.S. Q2 GDP Tracking Is Getting Closer to Being Negative

Housing starts cut second-quarter GDP to 0.7% at an annualized rate.

ECB’s Unscheduled Meeting Helps, but Only So Much

The meeting signaled that the central bank is monitoring the situation, but no real news.

U.S. Retail Inventories Are High

Discounts on excess goods could slow inflation, at least in some segments.

LatAm Daily Briefing: Mexico’s Transitory Inflation Moderation

A government-induced slowdown offers a brief respite from inflation’s ongoing gallop.

» VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY



Commentary


Russia-Ukraine Tracker: Fierce Fighting and a Food Crisis

Time is running out for policymakers to help get grain trapped in Ukraine into global markets.

Japan Risk Matrix: Stumbling Forward

External disruptions are adding to domestic weakness.

Bond Markets Didn’t Like What ECB Told Them Last Week

The central bank’s June meeting revealed a shift in mood, resulting in a dramatic repricing.

Northern Ireland Protocol: Risks Connected to Brexit Reemerge

A negotiated resolution remains our baseline assumption, but downside risks have increased.

» VIEW MORE COMMENTARY



Today's Economic Indicators


Netherlands
Unemployment
May. 2022: 3.3%
Despite the ongoing tightness in labour conditions, the unemployment rate rose from 3.2% in April to 3.3% in May.

Switzerland
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2022: -0.25%
The Swiss National Bank unexpectedly hiked its policy rate and the interest rate on sight deposits by 50 basis points to -0.25%.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
May. 2022: 6.8% y/y
Italy’s headline year-on-year inflation rate climbed to 6.8% in May, after declining in April.

Canada
Wholesale Trade
Apr. 2022: -0.5% m/m
Wholesale trade dropped in April, with sales volume declining for the third consecutive month.

United States
Jobless Claims
June 11: 229,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance can be volatile around holidays, but if they don’t drop more over the next couple of weeks it would suggest that the labor market is softening.

United States
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Jun. 2022: -3.3
Slipping further in June, manufacturing activity in the Federal Reserve’s Third District is no longer shown to be expanding.

United States
New Residential Construction (C20)
May. 2022: 1.549 mil, SAAR
The Federal Reserve is getting what it wants as financial market conditions tighten and interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy respond to the removal of monetary policy accommodation.

United Kingdom
Monetary Policy and Minutes
Jun. 2022: 1.25%
The Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% at this month’s meeting—in line with market expectations and marking the fifth consecutive rise since December.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
June 10: -1.51
U.S. financial market stress increased for the first time in a month with the St.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
June 10: 371.5 4-wk MA
The four-week moving average in our U.S.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
June 10: 92 bil cubic feet
Last week’s build in gas stocks was just a hair under consensus expectations, so this report will do little to move gas prices.

Uruguay
GDP
2022Q1: 8.3% y/y

Singapore
Foreign Trade
May. 2022:

Japan
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2022:

» VIEW MORE ECONOMIC INDICATORS

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