Today's Economy

The Fed will be pleased to see the core PCE deflator edging closer to target.

Stronger-than-expected U.K. GDP growth raises risks of a later-than-expected rate cut.

Improving real wages and growing foreign traveller flows will keep the euro zone economy afloat this summer.

The right holds an edge in France, while Labour is poised to win in British voting.

Commentary

Unemployment stabilizes in Mexico and continues declining in Brazil.

We expect job gains to come in at 200,000 in June.

Euro zone inflation and unemployment are likely to see steady readings.

Factory activity is stronger than the ISM manufacturing index is letting on.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession
Jun. 2024: 29.9%
World recession risks declined to 29.9% with data through April, indicating a very low risk of global recession.

Thailand
Industrial Production
May. 2024: -1.5% y/y
Thailand’s industrial production fell 1.5% year on year in May, which was a worse outcome than the 0.1% decline we expected.

Denmark
GDP
2024Q1: -1.4% q/q
Danish GDP declined 1.4% quarter over quarter in its final measure after being revised upwards by 0.4 percentage point from its preliminary print.

United Kingdom
GDP - Quarterly
2024Q1: 0.7% q/q
U.K. first-quarter GDP growth was revised to 0.7% quarter over quarter, up from 0.6% in the preliminary estimate.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
May. 2024: US$0.7 bil
Thailand’s foreign trade balance improved to a surplus of $656.2 million in May from a deficit of $1.6 billion in April.

Germany
Unemployment
Jun. 2024: 6.0%
Germany’s unemployment rate increased to 6% in June from 5.9% in May, surpassing both our and consensus expectations of no change.

Brazil
Employment Situation
May. 2024: 7.1%
Brazil's unemployment rate decreased further in May, reflecting the economy's positive performance and the creation of more jobs.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Apr. 2024: 0.3% m/m
Canada's real gross domestic product surprised to the upside in April, rising 0.3% after moving sideways in March.

United States
Personal Income
May. 2024: 0.5% m/m
Nominal personal income rose 0.5% in May, a touch higher than our and consensus forecasts.

United States
PCE Deflator
May. 2024: 0.0% m/m
May was an important step forward in the Federal Reserve’s fight to bring down inflation.

United States
Real Personal Spending
May. 2024: 0.3%% m/m
Real consumer spending bounced back in May.

Chile
Employment
May. 2024: 8.3%
The labor market improved in May amid the incipient economic recovery.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
May. 2024: -2.21% y/y
Chile's manufacturing production experienced an annual decline in May, following a significant rebound in the preceding month.

United States
Moody’s Analytics House Price Index
May. 2024: 5.77%
National home prices climbed 0.2% in May according to the Moody’s Analytics House Price Index.

United States
State Personal Income
2024Q1: 7%, SAAR
State personal income rose at an annualized rate of 7% in the first quarter after growing by a downward-revised 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jun. 2024: 68.2
Confidence fell again in June, although less than initially reported.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
May. 2024: 0.7% y/y
Retail sales grew in May after a surprising step back the month before, when spending fell after a meaningful upswing last fall and early this year.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2024: 11.25%
Colombia’s central bank board cut the reference interest rate by 50 basis points at Friday’s regular meeting, thus continuing with the monetary relaxation cycle that started in December.

Argentina
Economic Activity Indicator
Apr. 2024: -1.7% y/y
The statistics office’s monthly economic activity index, IMAE, fell 1.7% year on year in April after declining 8.3% in the previous month.

United States
Agricultural Prices
May. 2024: 0.9% m/m
In May, the Agricultural Prices Received Index experienced another increase from the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth.