| Today's Economy
U.S. GDP Declines Could Go Back to Back A second quarter in the red would raise fear of a recession, but it doesn't mean we are in one. Capital Market View: Spreads Continue to Widen, Little Life in Issuance High-yield spreads are among the widest since 2020. LatAm Daily Briefing: Inflation Forces Mexico’s Policymakers to Abandon Caution The central bank takes more forceful steps to curb inflation. Europe Daily Briefing: Euro Zone Unemployment at Record Low Service-sector recovery outweighs other weaknesses. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. B2B Tracker: Ripple Effects Clearly captured in the latest update is the economic pain Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is generating. Emerging Market View: Calling Inflation’s Peak By late summer year-on-year price gains will begin to ease, shifting attention to what comes after. Russia-Ukraine Tracker: Price Caps Discussed at G-7 The framework for limiting the price of oil and gas from Russia was agreed upon. Considering the Economic Consequences of the End of Roe v. Wade The Supreme Court’s decision does not materially change the outlook, but does pose new risks. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Netherlands
Retail Sales
May. 2022: -6.1% y/y
Retail sales posted a misleading 6.1% year-on-year decline in May. Denmark
GDP
2022Q1: -0.5% q/q
Danish quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative in the first quarter of 2022, falling 0.5%, after 2.8% growth in the last quarter of 2021. Denmark
Unemployment rate
May. 2022: 2.5%
The unemployment rate in Denmark once again came in at 2.5% in May. United Kingdom
GDP - Quarterly
2022Q1: 0.8% q/q
Final numbers confirmed that U.K.'s quarter-on-quarter GDP grew by 0.8% in the first quarter, building on a 1.3% increase in the last quarter of 2021. France
Household Consumption Survey
May. 2022: 0.7% m/m
Household goods consumption rebounded in May. Germany
Retail Sales
May. 2022: 0.6% m/m
German retail sales rose 0.6% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, following a sharp decline of 5.4% in April. Switzerland
Retail Sales
May. 2022: -1.6% y/y
Retail sales grew by 1.1% m/m this May, reversing an upwardly revised 0.9% decline in April. Sweden
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2022: 0.75%
Sweden’s Riksbank hiked its one-week repo rate by 50 basis points to 0.75% at its meeting on Thursday. Thailand
Foreign Trade
May. 2022: US$2 bil
Thailand’s trade position improved in May thanks to a slight improvement in exports. Germany
Unemployment
Jun. 2022: 5.3%
Germany's unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in June, from 5.0%, reaching the highest rate since November. Italy
Unemployment
May. 2022: 8.1%
Italy’s May employment report was mixed. Hong Kong SAR (China)
Retail Sales
May. 2022: -1.7% y/y
In May, retail sales values in Hong Kong declined 1.7% year over year to HKD29.1 billion, compared to the 11.7% y/y improvement in April. Euro Zone
Unemployment
May. 2022: 6.6%
The euro zone’s unemployment rate was 6.6% in May, down from 6.7% in April. This marks the lowest unemployment rate on record in the euro zone. Portugal
Retail Sales
May. 2022: 2.1% y/y
Portuguese retail sales increased from April to May. Brazil
Employment Situation
May. 2022: 9.8%
Brazil’s unemployment rate adjusted down in May as job creation advanced. Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Apr. 2022: 0.3% m/m
Output by industry rose modestly and in line with expectations in April. United States
Personal Income
May. 2022: 0.5% m/m
Besting expectations, U.S. personal income expanded 0.5% in May. United States
PCE Deflator
May. 2022: 0.6% m/m
The Federal Reserve is going to keep hiking interest rates aggressively until it tames inflation. United States
Real Personal Spending
May. 2022: -0.4% m/m
Real consumer spending posted its first decline of the year in May, undermined by falling vehicle sales and a reacceleration in inflation. United States
Jobless Claims
June 25: 231,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance slipped from a revised 233,000 (previously 229,000) to 231,000 in the week ended June 25. Chile
Manufacturing Production
May. 2022: 3.50% y/y
Chile's national manufacturing posted an annual advance in May, though growth rates remain moderate. Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
May. 2022: -1.3% y/y
Retail sales in Chile rose for the second consecutive month in May, challenging our view that the Chilean economy has already fallen into recession. World
Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession
Jun. 2022: 29.6%
Recession risks came in slightly lower but remain elevated. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
June 24: -1.38
Financial market stress ticked higher in the week ended June 24. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
June 24: 82 bil cubic feet
Last week’s build in gas stocks was just above consensus expectations, so this report will put some downward pressure on prices. Colombia
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2022: 7.50%
Colombia’s central bank board hiked the reference interest rate by 150 basis points to 7.5% at Thursday’s regular meeting. Argentina
Economic Activity Indicator
Apr. 2022: 5.1% y/y
The statistics office’s monthly economic activity index, IMAE, increased 5.1% y/y in April, after 4.5% in the previous month. United States
Agricultural Prices
May. 2022: 0.5% m/m
The Agricultural Prices Received Index increased 0.5% in May. Japan
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2022:
Japan
Employment Situation
May. 2022:
Japan
Tankan Survey
2022Q2:
China
Manufacturing PMI
Jun. 2022:
South Korea
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2022:
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