| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Labor Market Moderation We expect the economy to have added 120,000 payrolls in May, down from 177,000 in April. Early Summer Rise in UI Claims...Again The drift upward in UI claims in recent weeks aligns with a seasonal pattern observed in the past few years. Final Thoughts Ahead of May U.S. Employment Report We look for the economy to have added 120,000 jobs in May. Europe Daily Briefing: Cut Implemented, Outlook Changed The ECB's meeting changed our view on the likely path of interest rates over the coming months. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
DOGE Tracker: Judicial Lock We expect the economy to have added 120,000 jobs in May with little support from the public sector. Auto Credit Slows Down to Ask Directions The auto credit market remains in low gear. Private Credit & Systemic Risk Assessing the interconnectedness of private credit in the financial system. U.S. Chartbook: Better, but Not Great Last week’s economic calendar was jam-packed, and while sentiment has improved, the outlook remains downbeat. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Taiwan (China)
Consumer Price Index
May. 2025: 1.6% y/y
Taiwan’s consumer price inflation cooled to 1.6% y/y in May from 2% in April. Italy
Retail Sales
Apr. 2025: 0.7% m/m
In April, Italy’s retail sales rose 0.7% month over month, versus our forecast of a 0.3% increase. United States
Challenger Report
May. 2025: 93,816
Job cuts announced by U.S.-based companies ticked down in May but remain elevated. United States
Jobless Claims
May 31: 247,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance are trending higher for the second consecutive week. United States
Productivity and Costs
2025Q1: -1.5%, q/q, SAAR
In the first quarter, U.S. labor productivity fell by 1.5% annualized, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ revised estimate. United States
International Trade (FT900)
Apr. 2025: -$61.6 bil
A United States
Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index
Jun. 2025: -5.6
The Moody’s Analytics Beige Book Index fell to -5.6 in June from 19.4 in April. Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Apr. 2025: -C$ 7.14 bil
In April, Canada's merchandise exports declined 10.8% while imports fell by 3.5%. Euro Zone
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2025: 2.15%
Surprising no one, the European Central Bank proceeded with another rate cut at its June meeting. Canada
Purchasing Managers' Index
May. 2025: 48.9
In May, the Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index stayed below the neutral threshold, edging up from 47.9 to 48.9. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
May 30: -0.54
Financial market stress decreased last week. United States
Monthly GDP
Apr. 2025: 4.4% m/m
U.S. real GDP surged in April. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
May 30: 122 bil cubic feet
Natural gas inventories rose by 122 billion cubic feet, surging past last week's build of 101 bcf and analysts' expectations of a 111-bcf build. Brazil
Foreign Trade
May. 2025: US$7.239 bil
Brazil’s trade balance reported a surplus in May, despite no export growth and an import advance. Philippines
Industrial Production
Apr. 2025:
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