Economy.com Daily Update: June 6, 2019

Today's Economy

We are adjusting our forecast for the ECB and now don't anticipate a hike this year.

The calendar could be a positive, and we look for a 190,000 net gain.

Draghi declared that a rate hike is not more likely than a rate cut.

India's central bank reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% in June.

Commentary

China’s May data dump will likely show improvement from pronounced pockets of weakness in April.

The use of tariffs as a policy lever could cause us to adjust the odds around our trade war scenarios.

The presidential candidate has a proposal to address climate change and infrastructure.

As the trade wars escalate, threats to the U.S. economy are mounting.

Today's Economic Indicators

India
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2019: 5.75%
The Reserve Bank of India reduced the repurchase rate by 25 basis points in June to 5.75%, bringing cumulative easing so far this year to 75 basis points.

Euro Zone
GDP
2019Q1: 0.4%
The third estimate of euro zone GDP growth confirmed that the area’s economy expanded by 0.4% q/q in the first quarter, up from 0.2% in the previous stanza.

United States
Challenger Report
May. 2019: 58,577
Job cuts increased to 58,577 in May, up 46% from April and 39% higher on a year-to-date basis.

Euro Zone
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2019: 0.0%
While the European Central Bank left its policy rates unchanged at its March meeting, the bank surprised on the dovish side as it changed its forward guidance on rates (rates should stay put through the first half of next year, instead of through end of this year).

Colombia
Consumer Price Index
May. 2019: 3.3%
Colombia’s annual inflation rate accelerated slightly in May in part because of rising prices for some fresh food items.

Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Apr. 2019: -C$ 1.0 bil
An increase in gold exports served to narrow Canada’s trade deficit in April.

United States
Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index
Jun. 2019: 88.9
The Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index reported a rating of 89 for June’s edition of the Federal Reserve report, up from 86 in April.

United States
Jobless Claims
June 01: 218,000
Jobless claims are no longer swooning to record troughs, but they remain quite low, a sign that the U.S. labor market is in fine shape.

United States
Productivity and Costs
2019Q1: 3.4%
U.S. productivity is showing some signs of life, but we don’t want to read too much into a single quarter, since productivity is very volatile.

United States
International Trade (FT900)
Apr. 2019: -$50.8 bil
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April, falling $1.1 billion to $50.8 billion.

Russian Federation
Consumer Price Index
May. 2019: 0.3%
Russian inflation has settled at a steady pace.

Canada
Purchasing Managers' Index
May. 2019: 55.9
The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index stayed at 55.9 in May.

United States
Quarterly Services Survey
2019Q1:
The Quarterly Services Survey data suggest slight downward revision to first quarter GDP.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
May 31: -1.19
The St.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
May 31: 119 bil cubic feet
The increase in natural gas inventories surpassed analyst predictions, which will apply downward pressure on gas prices.

United States
Financial Accounts - Households
2019Q1: $108.64 tril
Household wealth rose in the first quarter as the stock market recovered much of its fourth quarter decline while growth in housing wealth also accelerated.

United States
Financial Accounts - Nonfinancial Corporate
2019Q1: $25.76 tril
Nonfinancial corporate business wealth increased in the first quarter behind a rise in U.S. equity prices.