Economy.com Daily Update: March 1, 2019

Today's Economy

The economy faces a number of hurdles, and growth likely will disappoint.

Core inflation edged down yet again in February.

South Korea's exports slumped to a three-year low in February.

The North Korean regime isn't infinitely adaptable and the sanctions are clearly having an impact.

Commentary

Trump has said a U.S.-China trade agreement would eventually conclude in a Florida summit with Xi Jinping.

The ECB may revise down its GDP and inflation forecasts.

Wages haven't improved with vigour, and downside risks loom large.

The economy will hit some bumps this year, but worries about a contraction are premature.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Consumer Confidence
Feb. 2019:

Germany
Retail Sales
Jan. 2019: 3.3%
German retail sales recovered strongly at the start of this year, rising by 3.3% m/m in January after falling by 3.1% in December.

Germany
Unemployment
Feb. 2019: 5.0%
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at the record low of 5% for the fourth consecutive month in February.

Italy
Unemployment
Jan. 2019: 10.5%
Italy’s unemployment rate ticked up as expected in January, rising to 10.5% from 10.4% in December.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2019: 1.5%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone inflation rose to 1.5% in February from 1.4% in January, in line with the consensus.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Jan. 2019: 7.8%
The euro zone’s jobless rate held steady at a downwardly revised 7.8% in January, its lowest since October 2008.

Peru
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2019: 2.0%
The consumer price index for the Lima metropolitan area rose 2% in February on a year-ago basis, just at the midrange of the central bank’s 1%-to-3% target.

United States
Personal Income
Jan. 2019: -0.1%
Income growth remains strong.

United States
PCE Deflator
Dec. 2018: 0.1%
U.S. inflation continues to flirt with the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective, but this isn’t sufficient to quiet the central bank’s dovish tone.

United States
Personal Spending
Dec. 2018: -0.6%
Real consumer spending fell sharply in December, consistent with the plunge in retail sales.

Canada
GDP
2018Q4: 0.4%
GDP growth slowed dramatically in the fourth quarter as investment spending plunged.

Canada
Industry Output
Dec. 2018: -0.1%
Canadian GDP took another small step back in December.

United States
ISM Manufacturing Index
Feb. 2019: 54.2
U.S. manufacturing conditions softened in February, as the ISM manufacturing index dropped from 56.6 in January to 54.2 in February.

United States
Vehicle Sales - AutoData
Feb. 2019:

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Feb. 2019: 93.8
Consumer sentiment recovered somewhat in February, but it remains soft following the federal government shutdown.

Brazil
Foreign Trade
Feb. 2019: US$3.67 bil
Brazil’s trade surplus rose to $3.7 billion in February, an increase of $1.5 billion from the January balance of $2.2 billion.

Uruguay
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2019: 7.5%
Consumer prices in Uruguay rose 7.5% in February on a year-ago basis, a slight acceleration from the January print of 7.4%.