Economy.com Daily Update: March 15, 2019

Today's Economy

Output dropped in February for a second consecutive monthly decline.

Belief in a rebound is evident in the high-yield bond spread, but some see a smaller rise.

Manufacturing is stuck in a rut.

A slowdown in growth will hold off further policy rate increases.

Commentary

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week will put pen to paper on its recent dovish pivot.

More votes are ahead on U.K. Brexit measures.

Rate hikes are off the table until mid-2021, and the odds of a rate cut in the next year sit at 35%.

Japan's core CPI inflation to stay below 1% for a fourth month.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2018Q3:

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Feb. 2019: US$0.33 bil
Lunar New Year seasonality looks to have struck Indonesia's export sector in February. The trade balance surprisingly swung into a surplus at US$330 million, while there were sharp falls in exports and imports on an annual basis.

India
Foreign Trade
Feb. 2019: -US$9.6 bil

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2019: 1.1%
Italy’s annual harmonized EU inflation picked up in February, rising 1.1% y/y, up from a 0.9% gain in January.

Euro Zone
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2019: 1.5%
Final numbers confirmed that euro zone inflation rose to 1.5% in February from 1.4% in January.

Canada
Survey of Manufacturing
Jan. 2019: 1.0%
Manufacturing sales in Canada made healthy progress in January, snapping a three-month streak of declines.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mar. 2019: 3.7
Growth in New York's factories is once again slowing, according to the March Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

Peru
Unemployment
Feb. 2019: 7.6%
The job market in the Lima metropolitan area took a breather in February as job creation moderated and labor force growth ground to a halt.

United States
Industrial Production
Feb. 2019: 0.1%
Industrial production rose 0.1% in February, rebounding modestly after January's decline.

United States
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Jan. 2019: 4.8% openings rate
The number of job openings has held stable at record levels in recent months.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Mar. 2019: 97.8
The improvement in the U.S. stock market, fading impact of the government shutdown, acceleration in wage growth, low gasoline prices, and a rebound in tax refunds likely contributed to the gain in consumer sentiment in March.

Japan
Monetary Policy
Mar. 2019: ¥80 tril.

United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Jan. 2019: -$7.2 bil
Net long-term flows fell for the second straight month in January.