Today's Economy Searching for Warnings of a U.S. Recession Those trying to sniff out a recession point to the yield curve and consumer confidence, but be careful. Capital Market View: Pricing Inflation and Deflation Risks Investors' view is that stagflationary risks will dominate the next couple of years. Not Businesses' Beveridge of Choice A shift in the Beveridge curve highlights the issues in labor matching. LatAm Daily Briefing: Brazilian Real Soars The currency has been by far the region's best performer this year. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary The European Energy Crisis The continent faces a pressing need to replace Russian natural gas with alternative sources of supply. U.S. Chartbook: Tight Labor Market May Further Force the Fed’s Hand There are glimmers of downside risk to inflation. U.S. Consumers Add Debt, but Burdens Stay Low Rising interest rates will increase burdens. The Humanitarian Crisis in Europe The Continent finds itself in a new geopolitical environment and the immediate challenge of sheltering the millions escaping Ukraine. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Spain Retail Sales Feb. 2022: 0.7% m/m Spain’s retail sales increased by 0.7% m/m in seasonally adjusted terms in February. Canada Earnings, Hours and Employment Jan. 2022: 2.5% y/y Job growth in January changed little from the previous month. United States S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes Jan. 2022: 19.1% y/y House price appreciation accelerated in January, as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, adding to December’s gains. United States FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index Jan. 2022: 18.2% y/y The Federal Housing Finance Agency Purchase-Only House Price Index started the year on a high note, up 18.2% from a year ago in January. United States Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index March 25: 377.8 4-wk MA The four-week moving average in our U.S. United States Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Feb. 2022: 7.0% openings rate Job availability is holding steady at a high rate, indicative of a strong and tight labor market. United States Conference Board Consumer Confidence Mar. 2022: 107.2 U.S. consumer confidence recovered slightly in March, bucking consensus and our expectations for a decline. United States Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey Mar. 2022: 23.4 Texas service sector activity stayed strong in March. Argentina Economic Activity Indicator Jan. 2022: 5.4% y/y The statistics office’s monthly economic activity index increased 5.4% y/y in January after 10% in the previous month. Chile Monetary Policy Mar. 2022: Japan Foreign Trade Feb. 2022: Thailand Industrial Production Feb. 2022: » VIEW MORE ECONOMIC INDICATORS |