| Today's Economy
Layoffs Are Surging, but Watch Hiring Hiring normally moves the needle on job growth, and it's weakening. U.K. Risk Matrix: At the Edge of the Abyss The COVID-19 outbreak is set to derail the British economy. Under the Hood of the New U.S. Baseline Forecast A significant and sudden recession is now the most likely scenario. Remote Work Will Not be Enough to Mitigate COVID-19 Impact Even the technology of the day won’t be enough to save the most vulnerable segments of the U.S. workforce. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Forecasting COVID-19 Cases An accurate forecast of the spread and duration of the disease is a critical component for estimating the economic impact of the virus. Will COVID-19 Overwhelm U.S. Hospitals? A quantitative analysis of how the pandemic will play out in the U.S. U.S. Consumer Outlook: Fundamentals Do a 180 Consumer fundamentals have changed dramatically, mostly to the bad. U.S. Chartbook: The First Shock Wave The COVID-19 pandemic’s toll is only beginning to appear in the hard data. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
France
Household Consumption Survey
Feb. 2020: -0.1%
French household consumption expenditure on goods fell by 0.1% m/m in February, coming in below expectations and adding to two previous months of declines. Thailand
Foreign Trade
Feb. 2020: US$5.4 bil
Thailand’s trade surplus expanded by US$5.4 billion in February, up from a US$383 million surplus in January. Spain
GDP
2019Q4: 0.4%
Spanish GDP finished off 2019 on a good note, up 0.4% on a quarterly basis and 1.8% on a yearly basis. Germany
Unemployment
Mar. 2020: 5.0%
The German unemployment rate was unchanged at 5% in March. United Kingdom
GDP - Quarterly
2019Q4: 0.0%
Final numbers confirmed that U.K. Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2020: 0.7%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone inflation plunged to a below-consensus 0.7% y/y in March from 1.2% in February. Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Feb. 2020: 3.9%
Chile’s retail and wholesale sales index rose 3.9% in February, building on the previous month’s gain and beating our forecast. Brazil
Employment Situation
Feb. 2020: 11.6%
Brazil's unemployment in February continued to be affected by the typical seasonality at the beginning of the year and the initial effects of the coronavirus. Chile
Employment
Feb. 2020: 7.8%
The national unemployment rate averaged 7.8% in the December-February rolling quarter, up from 7% a year earlier. Chile
Manufacturing Production
Feb. 2020: 3.74%
Despite less favorable global conditions, Chile's manufacturing production index reported an annual advance of 3.7% in February, after similar growth in January and growth of only 0.7% a year before. Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Feb. 2020: -0.5%
Lower prices for refined petroleum products drove prices for products manufactured in Canada down 0.5% in February, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index. Canada
Industry Output
Jan. 2020: 0.1%
Canadian GDP ticked higher by 0.1% in January following December’s 0.3% gain. Australia
Moody's Analytics Used Vehicle Price Indexes
Feb. 2020: 7.5%
Australia's used-vehicle prices rose 7.5% on a year-over-year basis in February. United States
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes
Jan. 2020: 3.1%
House price appreciation held strong in January, as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index. United States
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Mar. 2020: 120.0
U.S. consumer confidence tumbled in March as COVID-19 wreaked havoc on the economy, causing massive shutdowns and layoffs. United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
March 27: 158.2
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index increased from 151.2 to 158.2 in the week ended March 27. United States
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Mar. 2020: -67.0
Texas service sector output dropped dramatically in March, as a result of lockdowns of businesses to stem the COVID crisis. All current component indexes fell from being moderately positive in February to a range of -20 to -70. South Korea
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2020:
United States
Agricultural Prices
Feb. 2020: 1.8%
The Agricultural Prices Received Index increased 1.8% from January to February before the rapid spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. Chile
Monetary Policy
Mar. 2020:
Japan
Tankan Survey
2020Q1:
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