Economy.com Daily Update: March 5, 2021

Today's Economy

The EU threatens legal action against the U.K.

The U.K.’s new budget promises large stimulus spending for 2021 and 2022.

Q1 GDP is now tracking 7.2% at an annualized rate and likely headed lower.

Vaccines bring hope to U.S.

Commentary

The U.S. recovery boosts Mexico's industrial production.

What could go right and what could go wrong regarding COVID-19 in the year ahead.

Household spending has likely been a drag on euro zone GDP in the fourth quarter.

Pandemic-led surge in overseas demand propels China's exports.

Today's Economic Indicators

Austria
GDP
2020Q4: -2.7%
Austria finished 2020 on a downbeat note.

Ireland
GDP
2020Q4: -5.1%
Irish GDP contracted by 5.1% q/q in the fourth quarter, after an 11.8% rebound in the previous quarter.

Italy
Retail Sales
Jan. 2021: -3% m/m
Italy’s retail sales fell by 3% m/m in January, offsetting December’s increase, as new restrictions and low consumer confidence weighed on nonfood spending.

Brazil
Industrial Production
Jan. 2021: 4.7% y/y
Brazil’s industry started the year with renewed strength, as production posted another annual advance.

Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Jan. 2021: C$ 1.4 bil
Canada recorded a trade surplus in January, the first since May 2019.

United States
Employment Situation
Feb. 2021: 379,000 m/m, ths
The employment situation improved in February as the severity of the pandemic has begun to diminish.

United States
International Trade (FT900)
Jan. 2021: -$68.2 bil
Net exports will be a drag on the U.S. economy in the first quarter.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
February 26: 384.8
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index fell from 394.3 to 384.8 in the week ended February 26.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
March 03: 82.9
The Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index took a strong step up this week.

Canada
Purchasing Managers' Index
Feb. 2021: 60.0
The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index jumped in February to 60 from 48.4 in January, indicating expansion for the first time in two months.

Russian Federation
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2021: 0.8%
Russian inflation accelerated yet again in January.

United States
Consumer Credit (G19)
Jan. 2021: -$1.3 bil
Consumer credit contracted by $1.3 billion in January following a downwardly revised $8.8 billion expansion in December.

Colombia
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2021: