Today's Economy

Reopening, stimulus and chip shortage boost April U.S. CPI.

Leisure, hospitality, travel and autos have pushed inflation higher.

A stronger push toward wider vaccination and herd immunity will be key to the domestic recovery and should facilitate an economic rebound.

The jump in April's U.S. CPI, which is temporary, was attributed to the reopening of the economy.

Commentary

Fewer infections and a rising share of the population vaccinated has led states to loosen restrictions.

Odds are that U.S. shelter CPI will surprise to the upside, but the implications for inflation are minor.

The job market faces a new challenge, though the economy is still booming.

The expansion of unemployment insurance benefits may be a factor in limiting the supply of labor.

Today's Economic Indicators

Germany
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2021: 2.0%
Germany’s inflation rate reached 2% y/y in April, its strongest since April 2019.

Finland
Retail Sales
Mar. 2021: 0.3%
Finland's seasonally adjusted retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, increased by 0.3% m/m in March after the downwardly revised 1% gain in February.

France
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2021: 1.2%
French inflation accelerated to 1.2% y/y in April, after increasing by 1.1% in March.

Sweden
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2021: 2.2%
Sweden’s inflation rate rose to 2.2% y/y in April from 1.7% in March, the highest it has been since 2019.

United Kingdom
Monthly GDP
Mar. 2021: 2.1% m/m
U.K.

China
Monetary Aggregates
Apr. 2021: 8.1% y/y
Credit growth in China moderated in April, as the M2 money supply increased by 8.1% y/y, down from 9.4% in the prior month.

Euro Zone
Industrial Production
Mar. 2021: 0.1%
Euro zone industrial production increased by 0.1% m/m in March after a downwardly revised 1.2% decrease in February.

United Kingdom
GDP - Quarterly
2021Q1: -1.5% q/q
Preliminary numbers showed that U.K.

Portugal
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2021: 0.6%
Portugal’s consumer price index picked up slightly in April, rising by 0.6% y/y compared with 0.5% in March.

Portugal
Unemployment rate
2021Q1: 7.1%
Portugal’s unemployment rate stood at 7.1% in the first quarter, down from the previous quarter’s upwardly revised 7.3%.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
May 07: 2.1%
Mortgage applications grew 2.1% in the week of May 7 after declining 0.9% the week before.

Mexico
Industrial Production
Mar. 2021: 1.7% y/y
Industrial production in Mexico reported a solid advance in March, posting its first annual growth since before the start of the pandemic.

India
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2021: 4.3% y/y
India's consumer price index cooled in April, to 4.29% y/y from 5.52% in March.

India
Industrial Production
Mar. 2021: 22.4% y/y
Quick estimates of India's industrial production show a surge of 22.4% y/y in March, following a decline of 3.6% y/y in February and overall poor performance in the prior three months.

United States
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2021: 0.8% m/m
The April U.S. consumer price index isn’t going to sit well with financial markets, and the Federal Reserve may have to ramp up the communication to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored.

Russian Federation
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2021: US$10.0 bil
Russia’s trade balance made a significant recovery in March.

United States
Oil Inventories
May 07: 484.7 mil barrels
A smaller than anticipated decline in oil inventories will put some downward pressure on oil prices.

Uruguay
Industrial Production
Mar. 2021: 3.7% y/y

United States
Treasury Budget
Apr. 2021: -$225.6 bil
The extension of the federal income tax filing due date from April 15 to May 17, combined with recent pandemic relief legislation, contributed to the second highest Treasury budget deficit ever for the month of April.