Economy.com Daily Update: May 15, 2020

Today's Economy

Last month should be the worst of the recession as signs point toward some improvement in May.

The image of the ailing coronavirus economy is coming into focus.

After decades of retreat, big government is back in the saddle.

The virus' resurgence in Singapore and S. Korea shows how hard it will be to stem new outbreaks.

Commentary

The data will show the initial wounds inflicted by COVID-19.

Tripling the VAT rate will wallop the oil-dependent economy.

Some high-frequency data suggest that the economy has ticked up but remains extremely depressed.

Life has begun to gradually return to normal, though there is significant disparity across countries.

Today's Economic Indicators

India
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2020: -US$6.8 bil
Battered by the global fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, India’s trade deficit came in at $6.8 billion in April, shrinking further from March's $9.8 billion and marking the smallest trade gap since May 2016.

France
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2020: 0.4%
France's EU-harmonized inflation rate dropped to 0.4% y/y in April from 0.8% in March.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Mar. 2020: €28.2 bil
The euro zone trade surplus rose to €28.2 billion in March from €22.7 billion a year earlier.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2020: 0.0%
Italy's headline inflation rate stalled in April following a 0.1% y/y gain in March, confirming preliminary estimates.

Canada
International Transactions in Securities
Mar. 2020: -C$9.8 bil
In February, foreigners purchased Canadian securities and Canadians bought foreign securities followed by a sharp selloff on both sides in March.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
May. 2020: -48.5
Factory sentiment in New York rebounded in May, but it looks more like the proverbial dead cat bounce than a meaningful improvement.

United States
Retail Sales
Apr. 2020: -16.4%
Retail sales continued to fall at unprecedented rates in April as the store closures and stay-at-home orders reduced sales dramatically.

Peru
Unemployment
Apr. 2020: 9.0%
The April jobs report for the Lima metropolitan area is the clearest sign yet of the body blow raining down on the Peruvian economy in the form of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Russian Federation
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2020: US$9.3 bil
Russia’s trade surplus continued its downward trajectory in March.

United States
Industrial Production
Apr. 2020: -11.2%
The U.S. economy contracted significantly in April, and almost no part of the economy was immune.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Mar. 2020: -0.2%
The inventory build stumbled again in March, with business stockpiles contracting 0.2% over the month.

United States
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Mar. 2020: 3.9% openings rate
March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data, which unlike payroll employment cover the entire month, disaggregate some of the effects of COVID-19 on the labor market.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
May. 2020: 73.7
The free fall in consumer sentiment is over, but confidence, which a few months ago was near historic highs, is now at a level consistent with the recession the U.S. economy is suffering.

United States
Monthly GDP
Mar. 2020:

Colombia
GDP
2020Q1: 1.1%
The Colombian economy expanded just 1.1% y/y in the first quarter, sharply down from 3.5% y/y in the previous quarter (revised figure).

United States
CreditForecast.com Household Credit Report
Apr. 2020: 4.07%
Domestic credit markets modestly contracted in April, falling by $8.7 billion, their first monthly decline in more than a year.

United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Mar. 2020: -$112.6 bil
Net long-term capital flows were negative in March, snapping a streak of six straight monthly inflows.