Today's Economy

The chances of a no-deal Brexit have significantly increased.

Theresa May stepped down, leaving the door open for a hardliner Eurosceptic to take her place.

Higher interest rates are having a counterintuitive effect on inflation.

India's incumbent BJP has been returned to office with a stronger majority.

Commentary

Inflation pressures should have eased across most major euro zone economies.

Chinese manufacturing sentiment likely improved in May. India's negative output gap persists.

The next U.K. prime minister is likely to be a hardline Brexiteer who won’t solve the current deadlock.

Overall economic conditions are strong, but there are spending challenges in education, healthcare and infrastructure.

Today's Economic Indicators

United Kingdom
Retail Sales
Apr. 2019: 5.2%
U.K. retail sales again beat expectations, gaining 5.2% y/y in April and exceeding the consensus of 4.1%.

United States
Durable Goods (Advance)
Apr. 2019: -2.1%
New orders for durable manufactured goods fell 2.1% in April, their second decrease in the last three months.

Mexico
Economic Activity Index
Mar. 2019: 1.3%
Economic activity in Mexico did not improve significantly in March, despite the positive effect of the timing of Easter.

Mexico
GDP
2019Q1: 1.2%
As expected, Mexico's economy decelerated at the beginning of the year, coinciding with the beginning of the new administration.

Mexico
Trade Balance
Apr. 2019: US$1,370.2 mil
The trade balance remained in positive territory in April as imports stayed moderated.

Russian Federation
Retail Sales
Apr. 2019: 1.2%
Russia's retail sales growth printed at 1.2% y/y in April, down from 1.6% in March.

Russian Federation
Unemployment
Apr. 2019: 4.7%
Russia’s unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7% in April, in line with our forecast.