Economy.com Daily Update: May 30, 2024

Today's Economy

In April, the pending home sales index fell 7.7% from the prior month.

Euro zone unemployment hit a record low of 6.4%.

Among U.S. metro areas, remote work, which grew in the pandemic, persists to varying degrees.

Palm oil output jumped more than 15% on a year-earlier basis.

Commentary

The green agenda in Europe is under threat due to the rise of the far-right.

Shunto results are not as useful as they once were.

The Federal Reserve cleared up any misconception about coming rate cuts.

Income gains are pronounced in the Mountain West, an area that has struggled to digest rapid cost increases.

Today's Economic Indicators

Thailand
Industrial Production
Apr. 2024: 3.4% y/y
Thailand’s industrial production rose 3.4% year on year in April, outperforming our expectation for a 3.1% decline.

Sweden
GDP
2024Q1: 0.7% q/q
Sweden’s first-quarter GDP was revised substantially higher and is now reported to have grown 0.7% q/q in the first quarter of 2024, as opposed to the 0.1% contraction published in the preliminary estimate.

Switzerland
GDP
2024Q1: 0.3% q/q
Switzerland’s GDP, adjusted for sporting events, increased 0.3% quarter over quarter in the first quarter of 2024, adding to a 0.3% increase in the previous quarter.

Taiwan (China)
GDP
2024Q1: 6.6% y/y
Taiwan’s first-quarter GDP was revised upwards to 6.6% year over year after the advance estimate of 6.5%.

Italy
Unemployment
Apr. 2024: 6.9%
April’s employment report brought good news.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Apr. 2024: 6.4%
The euro zone’s unemployment rate ticked lower to 6.4% in April from 6.5% in March.

Euro Zone
Business and Consumer Sentiment
May. 2024: 96.0
The euro zone’s economic sentiment indicator rose to 96 in May from 95.6 in April, meeting expectations of a lacklustre but steady reading. Across sectors, the story was mixed.

Belgium
Consumer Price Index
May. 2024: 3.4% y/y
In May, Belgium’s CPI inflation rate was unchanged at 3.4% year on year.

Mexico
Employment Situation
Apr. 2024: 2.6% Unemployment
Mexico’s unemployment rate trended higher in April after an extended decline in recent months.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Apr. 2024: 0.2% m/m
Advance estimates from the Census Bureau show that wholesale inventories increased 0.2% in April following a 0.4% decline in March.

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Apr. 2024: -$99.4 bil
According to the advance release, the international trade deficit in goods widened in April to $99.4 billion, increasing $7.1 billion from the prior month.

United States
Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index
May. 2024: 27.8
The Moody’s Analytics Beige Book Index increased modestly in May to 27.8, up from 22.2 in the prior report.

United States
Jobless Claims
May 25: 219,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance are still holding steady.

Canada
Balance of International Payments
2024Q1: -C$5.4 bil
Canada's account balance worsened slightly in the first quarter, widening to a C$5.4 billion deficit, C$900 million larger than in the previous quarter, as the balance on goods trade swung into deficit from a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Canada
Earnings, Hours and Employment
Mar. 2024: 4.2% y/y
In March, the number of employees receiving pay and benefits from their employer pushed higher by 51,400 (0.3%) after a more modest gain in February.

United States
GDP
2024Q1: 1.3%, q/q, SAAR
U.S. economic growth slowed further in the first quarter, dropping to below potential after two quarters of above-trend growth.

Chile
Employment
Apr. 2024: 8.5%
The labor market continued to improve in April amid the incipient economic recovery.

United States
Pending Home Sales
Apr. 2024: -7.7% m/m
The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index tumbled in April, losing 7.7% from the month prior.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
May 24: -0.97
U.S. financial stress decreased in the week ended May 24, with the St.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
May 24: 84 bil cubic feet
Last week’s build in natural gas storage was slightly larger than consensus predictions, so this report could put some downward pressure on gas prices.

United States
Oil Inventories
May 24: 454.7 mil barrels
Oil inventories had a larger draw than anticipated, which could put some upward pressure on prices.

South Korea
Industrial Production
Apr. 2024:

South Korea
Retail Sales
Apr. 2024:

Japan
Employment Situation
Apr. 2024:

Japan
Industrial Production
Apr. 2024:

China
Manufacturing PMI
May. 2024: