| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Fighting on Two Fronts A fresh trade war with Mexico could hurt sentiment and boost recession risks. Odds Now Favor a Fed Rate Cut This Year Trade tensions could do even more damage, and the central bank may have to respond. Europe Daily Briefing: Italy’s Weak GDP Headline Belies Better Details Net trade, consumer spending and investment contributed to growth, while inventories dragged. New U.S. Tariff Threatens Mexico's Economy, NAFTA Replacement The impact will be significant, and the door is opened for a trade war. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 31, 2019 Employment data and Fed speeches will dominate the week ahead. Europe Weekly Highlights and Preview, 31 May, 2019 Preliminary May inflation figures for the euro zone will top a busy week of economic releases. Asia-Pacific Weekly Highlights and Preview, 31 May, 2019 Australia's economic slowdown will be cemented in the March quarter. Latin America Economic Preview: 3-7 June Inflation is stable in Colombia, Uruguay and Mexico, declining in Brazil, and below target in Chile. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
South Korea
Monetary Policy
May. 2019: 1.75%
The Bank of Korea kept the key policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at the May monetary policy meeting. Japan
Consumer Confidence
May. 2019: 39.4
Japan's consumer confidence slumped for the 16th consecutive month in May. Germany
Retail Sales
Apr. 2019: -2.0%
German retail sales disappointed at the start of the second quarter, after neither rising nor falling in March. Thailand
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2019: US$0.1 bil
Thailand's trade surplus shrank to US$82 million in April, from US$3.5 billion in March. Italy
GDP
2019Q1: 0.1%
Italy's first quarter GDP figure brought some relief, with the economy expanding 0.1% with respect to the previous quarter, slightly lower than initial estimates. Brazil
Employment Situation
Apr. 2019: 12.5%
Unemployment started to trend down in April, after rebounding since the beginning of the year. Canada
GDP
2019Q1: 0.4%
GDP growth remained muted in the first quarter of 2019, continuing the poor performance that ended the prior year, but the composition improved significantly. Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Apr. 2019: 0.8%
Canadian producer prices rose 0.8% in April. Canada
Industry Output
Mar. 2019: 0.5%
Canadian GDP recovered in March. United States
Personal Income
Apr. 2019: 0.5%
Nominal personal income growth picked up in April, rising 0.5%. United States
PCE Deflator
Apr. 2019: 0.3%
There were not many surprises in the April PCE deflators and they don’t alter our view about the immediate course of monetary policy. United States
Personal Spending
Apr. 2019: 0.0%
Real consumer spending growth has been erratic since late last year, so it should be no surprise that March’s strong gain was followed by a weak April. Chile
Employment
Apr. 2019: 6.9%
Chile's national unemployment rate averaged 6.9% in the February-April rolling quarter, up from 6.7% a year earlier. Chile
Manufacturing Production
Apr. 2019: -1.4%
National manufacturers reported annual contraction in April, affected by the high comparison base of last year, but total industry advanced. United States
Risk of Recession
Apr. 2019: 16%
The odds that the U.S. will be in recession in the next six months fell in April but this doesn’t capture the recent escalation in the trade tensions between the U.S. and some of its major trading partners. United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
May. 2019: 100.0
Consumer sentiment gained ground in May, but less than initially reported; survey results received after the flare-up in the trade war came in weaker than those received earlier in the month, according to the University of Michigan. Colombia
Monetary Policy
May. 2019:
United States
Agricultural Prices
Apr. 2019: 1.1%
The Agricultural Prices Received Index rose 1.1% in April thanks to a solid increase in the livestock production index. » VIEW MORE ECONOMIC INDICATORS | 